W ciągu ostatnich kilku miesięcy starałem się pokazać, że covid wcale nie jest tak zły, jak przedstawiają go główne media. Pisałem o śmiertelności poniżej 0,2% , co oznacza, że dla większości ludzi ryzyko śmierci w przypadku zarażenia wynosi mniej niż 1 na 500 (i mniej niż 1 na 3000, jeśli masz mniej niż 70 lat). wiek). Pisałem również o tym, jak choroba preferencyjnie dotyka ludzi, którzy i tak są bardzo blisko końca życia , więc ilość utraconego życia, gdy ktoś umiera na tę chorobę, jest zwykle niewielka. Zauważyłem, że rok 2020 prawdopodobnie okaże się bardzo przeciętnym rokiem pod względem ogólnej śmiertelności, pomimo rzekomo szalejącej śmiertelnej pandemii.
Niektórzy sprzeciwiają się temu, że covid może nie być tak zabójczy, ale wiele osób ma „długi covid”. Mam podkreślić, że 98% osób, które popadły covid są w pełni odzyskane w ciągu trzech miesięcy , i że nie ma dowodów, że dobre wyniki w covid długoterminowych konsekwencji zdrowotnych (nie jest złe dowody, na podstawie niskiej jakości nauki, które ma celowo był używany do straszenia ludzi).
Zwróciłem również uwagę, że środki podjęte w celu zwalczania covid, takie jak ogromne kampanie strachu, anulowane programy szczepień dziecięcych i zamknięcie szkół, spowodują utratę znacznie większej liczby lat życia niż bezpośrednią stratę dla wirusa. Dane, których użyłem do wskazania tych wszystkich rzeczy, są publicznie dostępne i opublikowane w niektórych z najbardziej prestiżowych i szanowanych czasopism naukowych na świecie.
Biorąc pod uwagę, że tak jest, co się do cholery dzieje? W wielu przypadkach blokady były bardziej dotkliwe za drugim razem niż za pierwszym razem, mimo że wiemy teraz o wiele więcej o wirusie. Warto było zachować szczególną ostrożność w marcu, kiedy niewiele wiadomo o COVID-19. To już nie ma sensu.
Mam hipotezę, że tak naprawdę to tylko moja próba zrozumienia sytuacji, którą się z wami podzielę. Wiele z tych myśli zostało opracowanych wspólnie z Ulfem Martinem, który obszernie napisał o tym, co według niego dzieje się na jego własnej stronie internetowej. Jeśli masz alternatywną hipotezę, udostępnij ją w sekcji komentarzy poniżej, a będziemy mogli omówić. Jak wszyscy wiedzą, Covid-19 powstał w Chinach, a Chiny są totalitarną dyktaturą, która ma długą historię ścisłej kontroli przekazów medialnych i dobrze rozwiniętą machinę propagandową.
Myślę, że Chińczycy wcześnie zdali sobie sprawę, że covid-19 nie był zbyt poważny, nie gorszy niż zła grypa. Prawdopodobnie dlatego ich początkową reakcją była próba stłumienia publicznej dyskusji na ten temat i po prostu pozwolenie, by się skończyła. Ale wkrótce stało się jasne, że to niemożliwe, a historie szybko rozprzestrzeniają się w mediach społecznościowych, pomimo ich prób cenzurowania.
Zamiast tego zmienili taktykę i postanowili wystawić przedstawienie prosto z hollywoodzkiego filmu. Dlatego w styczniu i lutym świat został potraktowany starannie opracowanymi choreograficznie obrazy zamknięcia w Wuhan. Widzieliśmy zaspawane wejścia do kompleksów mieszkalnych, ludzi w kombinezonach ochronnych odkażających budynki, ludzi leżących martwych na ulicach i floty pojazdów spryskujących wszystko środkiem dezynfekującym.
Może to miał być tylko pokaz siły. Być może celem było zmanipulowanie innych krajów w celu doprowadzenia do nadzwyczajnych aktów samookaleczenia, które nastąpiły. A może to był po prostu szczęśliwy produkt uboczny. Niezależnie od tego, Chiny twierdziły, że całkowicie pokonały COVID w nieco ponad miesiąc. 11 lutego Chiny zgłaszały 6900 przypadków dziennie. Miesiąc później było podobno tylko 15 przypadków dziennie w całych Chinach, kraju liczącym ponad miliard ludzi.
Obecnie, gdy reszta świata boryka się z drugą falą, Chiny nadal zgłaszają mniej niż 20 przypadków dziennie. Twierdzą również, że do tej pory mniej niż 5000 osób zmarło z powodu COVID w Chinach. To mniej niż Szwecja, kraj z mniej niż 1% populacji Chin. Tak, jasne.
Z jakiegoś powodu, chociaż wiemy, że Chiny to dyktatura, z dobrze rozwiniętą machiną propagandową, ufamy ich liczbom i informacjom. Ufamy, że tymczasowa blokada Chin w Wuhan była tak skuteczna, że choroba została całkowicie wytępiona w tym kraju i nadal nie wykazuje żadnych oznak powrotu.
Oczywiście jest to niemożliwe. Jak pisałem wcześniej, dowody wskazują, że blokada jest nieskuteczna . Do czasu, gdy Wuhan został zablokowany, w lutym wirus krążył w Chinach już od miesięcy i musiał być szeroko rozpowszechniony w całym kraju. Zamknięcie jednego miasta w sytuacji, gdy wirus był już szeroko rozpowszechniony w kraju, było tak naprawdę bezsensowną akcją, wykonywaną wyłącznie w celach propagandowych.
A jaki był tego rezultat? Globalne media weszły w nadbieg, rozpowszechniając chińskie obrazy na całym świecie. Kiedy przypadki zaczęły pojawiać się w innych krajach, wszyscy byli już przygotowani, aby postrzegać to jako śmiertelną pandemię. Zarówno w uznanych mediach, jak i mediach społecznościowych żądano, aby rządy podejmowały podobne działania do Chin, ponieważ działania Chin „wyraźnie” okazały się tak skuteczne. Demokratyczne rządy, obawiając się utraty wyborców, zastosowały się do nich. Wyborcy, widząc coraz bardziej drakońskie środki podejmowane przez rządy, poczuli, że uzasadnia to ich strach, i stali się coraz bardziej przestraszeni i coraz bardziej wymagający. Powstała pętla pozytywnego sprzężenia zwrotnego. A reszta to historia.
Za sto lat historycy nie będą mówić o COVID-19 jako przykładzie śmiertelnej pandemii na równi z hiszpańską grypą. Będą mówić o tym jako o przykładzie, jak łatwo jest wywołać stan zbiorowej histerii. Biorąc pod uwagę, że tak jest, jak długo będzie trwała obecna histeria?
Myślę, że większość rządów wkopała się w dziurę w związku z COVID. Przedstawili to jako bardziej śmiercionośne i niebezpieczne niż jest. Oni to wiedzą. Ale przyznanie się do błędu teraz jest niemożliwe. Częściowo dzieje się tak dlatego, że blokada spowodowała tyle cierpienia, że stwierdzenie, że to wszystko poszło na marne, byłoby samobójstwem. Częściowo dlatego, że środki masowego przekazu i opinia publiczna są tak przekonane o powadze choroby, że każdy rząd, który argumentowałby inaczej, zostałby określony jako nieodpowiedzialny i obłąkany.
Tak więc jedynym wyjściem z dziury jest magiczna kulka. A ta magiczna kula to szczepionka. Nie ma znaczenia, czy szczepionka ma jakikolwiek wpływ na ogólną śmiertelność, czy też chroni osoby starsze i niedołężne, które są najbardziej narażone na ciężką chorobę lub zapobiega rozprzestrzenianiu się infekcji. Jedyne, co się liczy, to jak najszybsze wydostanie się z dziury, bez przyznania się, że kiedykolwiek zrobiłeś coś złego.
Po zaszczepieniu wystarczającej liczby osób rządy mogą stwierdzić, że kryzys się zakończył. Głowy państw można wychwalać jako bohaterów. I wszyscy możemy dalej opowiadać o swoim życiu.
Ostatnio wiele osób pyta mnie o moje poglądy na temat szczepionek. W tej chwili zagłębiam się w dane i za około tydzień powinienem przygotować szczegółowy artykuł.
![](data:image/svg+xml;charset=utf-8,<svg height="730px" width="1200px" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" version="1.1"/>)
Ciekawy widok, ale co powiesz na fakty, przepełnienie szpitali, zgony? Nadal nie mogę znaleźć całkowicie przekonującego wyjaśnienia tego wszystkiego.
Twoja przepowiednia o „wyjściu” z zeszłorocznego szaleństwa jest z pewnością poprawna: szczepionka równie dobrze mogłaby być placebo! Jednak dla mnie ostatnie kilka miesięcy pokazało stopień zgodności z restrykcyjnymi zasadami, który wzrósł do ponad dziewięćdziesięciu procent, pokazując, jak bardzo strach stał się chorobą samą w sobie. Można się zastanawiać, jakie blizny pozostawi…
COVID dotyczy nauki. Ale jeśli chodzi o blokadę, to tylko polityka.
W Wielkiej Brytanii zgony są postrzegane jako śmierć spowodowana COVID, jeśli dana osoba zmarła 28 dni po pozytywnym wyniku. Z tak poluzowanym standardem nie wierzę, że rząd rzeczywiście chce wyjść z dziury.
Kolejna szalona wiadomość: kobieta zostaje aresztowana za twierdzenie, że oddział jest pusty po sfilmowaniu szpitala. Najwyraźniej ta „pandemia” to tylko polityka.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/anti-lockdown-activist-arrested-dressing-23248926?fbclid=IwAR0BaLgCDUGCSJTXQz4qWRLlXrLdUAFQcBcV2JzX2W9GELVKh316UTNnn
Wygląda na to, że „Wydarzenie 201” przygotowywałoby tych, którzy uczestniczyli, do reagowania w określony sposób na pandemię, więc prezentacja Chin nakłoniła następnie tych, którzy uczestniczyli, do reakcji w sposób symulowany podczas ćwiczenia.
Pytanie dotyczące wyniku w Azji nie mogło mieć wpływu na wynik w Azji. Wydaje się nieprawdopodobne, że kraje w południowo-wschodniej Azji są o wiele lepsze w walce z covid niż my?
Prawdopodobnie twierdzą, że szczepionka jest nieskuteczna przeciwko nowemu zmutowanemu wirusowi, aby kontynuować ich gry. Nie chodzi już o naukę, ale o politykę.
Bezpłatna wskazówka: trzymaj się nauki i unikaj teorii spiskowych. Trudno jest zdobyć reputację, ale łatwo ją stracić.
Wasze artykuły na temat diety, ćwiczeń itp. Były bardzo dobrym początkiem, skupionym na wynikach eksperymentów. Jeśli chcesz spekulować na temat manipulacji chińskimi mediami, polecam założyć zupełnie inny blog i skupić się na początkowych tematach.
Cóż, nie powinieneś wierzyć we wszystko, co ci powiedziano. Widziałem filmy z pustymi szpitalami, a pewna kobieta w Wielkiej Brytanii została właśnie aresztowana za chodzenie po okolicy i filmowanie w pustym szpitalu… kiedy w mediach pojawia się pełna panika
O jakim kraju mówisz? W Hiszpanii, Włoszech, Grecji, USA itd. Do szpitali dochodzi w każdym sezonie grypowym. Mass media po prostu nigdy się nie przejmowały i nigdy nie oglądałeś tego w późnych codziennych wiadomościach w telewizji. https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/
Jeden fakt, na przykład: średnia zgonów z zakażeniem covid w Niemczech odpowiada średniej długości życia 83. W Szwecji zgony z zakażeniem covid są jeszcze starsze…. ! Byłby to fakt, którego nie można po prostu zignorować w polityce!
W Wielkiej Brytanii świadczenia socjalne zostały bardzo ostro obcięte w ciągu ostatnich 5 lat. Tak więc w tym zachodnioeuropejskim kraju (!) Mamy zmniejszającą się długość życia o 5 lat i rosnącą śmiertelność noworodków!
Ale nikt w Wielkiej Brytanii nie był szczególnie zainteresowany takimi wydarzeniami, ponieważ media i polityka były całkowicie oddane Brexitowi. Ta sama gra z wirusem Covid obecnie…
( https://thecorrespondent.com/177/the-biggest-story-in-the-uk-is-not-brexit-its-life-expectancy/224529572289-66f95aad ) A
więc, w kraju takim jak Wielka Brytania w ostatnich latach pogarsza się stan zdrowia ludności i maleją wydatki na opiekę zdrowotną. To nie są dobre warunki do zarządzania powidokami! Logika jest taka, ale niekoniecznie, że covid jest bardzo niebezpiecznym wirusem…!
Zespół lekarzy i biohakerów, którzy wydają się skutecznie leczyć „Long Covid”
https://nkalex.medium.com/the-team-of-front-line-doctors-and-biohackers-who-seem-to-have- olved-long-covid-5f9852f1101d
Na właściwym torze. Uwielbiam czytać twoje artykuły.
Ale myślę, że jest to związane z próbą „Wielkiego Resetowania” i zostało skrupulatnie zaplanowane przez Billa Gatesa i jego przyjaciół.
Dzisiaj jest 3 stycznia i myślę, że od 6 do 7 stycznia zobaczysz, jak Trump obali oszustwa wyborcze w USA, a następnie zaczniesz ujawniać, co się dzieje, uwięzić lub stracić sprawców i otworzyć USA na biznes.
Inne kraje nie będą miały innego wyjścia, jak tylko pójść za nim, gdy prawda wyjdzie na jaw.
Nazwij mnie wariatem, ale nie musisz długo czekać, aby zobaczyć, czy jestem gdzieś blisko prawej.
Liczba zgonów i obłożenie szpitali nie jest wyższa niż w latach poprzednich. Na przykład Los Angeles obawia się, że „pojemność OIOM wynosi 0% !!!!!!” Ale nigdy nie powiedziano, że stan oblicza „pojemność oddziału chorych na COVID” w oparciu o jakąś skomplikowaną formułę, której w tej chwili nie pamiętam. Więc mają na myśli to, że część OIOM-u, którą wyznaczyli dla COVID, jest pełna. Ale sprawiają, że brzmi to tak, jakby cały oddział intensywnej terapii był pełny. W ten sposób regiony CA mogą zgłaszać „0% pojemności OIT”, ale mają ponad 1000 dostępnych łóżek na OIT.
Mark: Argumenty podane przez Sebastiana Rushwortha są całkowicie istotne, udowodnione i zrozumiałe, więc gdzie jest dowód na twoje argumenty? Może puste szpitale, fałszywe testy PCR, wszystkie zgony zsumowane i tak dalej?
Innym faktem jest to, że w tym roku w Niemczech tylko 4% populacji zmarło z powodu Covid. Ale 96% zmarłych nikogo nie interesuje z powodu fałszywego znaczenia mediów!
Pytanie brzmi, czy szpitale są bardziej opanowane niż rok z powodu złej grypy. Nie widzieliśmy żadnych przekonujących dowodów na to, że szpitale są prawie przytłoczone. Wydaje się, że problem tkwi w problemach kadrowych, zaostrzanych przez testy reżimów, które generują fałszywie pozytywne wyniki dla bezobjawowego personelu lub członków rodziny, co prowadzi do 14 samoizolacji…
Regarding the Chinese I believe they were at start overtaken by the events. So they built hospitals, closed people in, and so on. Probably a month later they found out that this virus is not that dangerous for most of the population and that’s where one would think how to take advantage from the better knowledge of the situation. Locally they seem to have stopped to bother about testing and reporting cases, as much as nobody reports cases of other virus infections. But internationally, they make new business with masks, gloves, other medical equipment etc. and trying to get involved in the vaccine business as well.
Somehow, it strikes me as inconsistent with what I personally observed and the media showed, that Covid is just a bad flu. Does a bad flu year brings the havoc that we observed in Northern Italy, or fills the Madrid skating ring with dead bodies? Or submits hospitals, intensive care units and emergency rooms to a similar stress? No doubt there is a degree of social hysteria in our recent behavior, but is that it?
Please let me know if the data show that a bad flu year has a similar impact.
The only conspiracy I am convinced of is the one linking the WHO to the major pharmaceutical companies. If you want to detect an immoral or illegal activity it is always useful to follow the money and ask who makes the best benefit of it?
It is really an evil set-up: the pharmaceutics are sitting on the board of the WHO (apparently in majority), suggesting strongly the official statements of the WHO which are being taken by the governments as word of God. Journalists need to produce sensations, otherwise nobody reads them and they are not making a living. The governments cannot ignore the press if they want to stay on the side of the majority of the voters. Result: the pharmaceutical companies sell hundreds of millions of vaccines, the press has every day something to talk about and the population has a double function: act as the guinea pig for something not really needed, and also pay the bills. And the population will probably pay for the rest of the century, but this is another discussion.
Mark, hospitals in the UK are not overrun. There may be pressure on staff, but that is because so many have been confined at home by a rubbish test.
Hi Sebastian. Good article and I would tend to agree with you. Here is an interesting article from Dr. Malcolm Kendrick – https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/
2 part post as I can’t fit it into one!
Alfio – Regarding Chinese media manipulation. For the CCP image is everything and the media is pretty well fully under state control. I believe what Dr Rushworth says for two main reasons –
1. I saw a clip on Twitter back in March I think, from a Chinese guy, who had filmed a hospital admission area in a Wuhan hospital that had been cleared of people apart from a videoing set-up, with lights and cameras. Then a small crowd of noisy panicked ‘medics’ rushed in, pushing a patient on a trolley down a corridor, closely followed by more cameras. After the short ‘scene’, they stopped and chatted, then started to walk out. He put the same scene up as it appeared on their news later that day, it was one we probably saw here, showing chaos as they fought to save someone’s life. All close-in shots of the frantic efforts as the patient was rushed in, but none showing how empty the rest of the area was. I meant to keep it, but it had disappeared by the next day, taken down as ‘fake news’ no doubt.
Also, do you remember when their premier Xi visited blocks of locked down flats in Wuhan and someone was shouting from a window, in Chinese, that it’s “all lies”? That was edited out of the official footage as shown on their TV but you could see his aides looking up at the flats, trying to identify who was shouting.
Part 2 –
2. Brat przyjaciela mieszka i pracuje w Pekinie, od wielu lat mieszka w Chinach, mówi po chińsku i ma chińskiego partnera. Powiedział mojemu przyjacielowi (przez Skype przez VPN), że Chińczycy są niedowierzający, że wierzymy w to, co mówią nasi nadawcy bez wątpienia, tam wszystko jest zmanipulowane i starannie zarządzane, aby wyświetlać wiadomość, której chce CCP. Wielu ludzi nauczyło się to przejrzeć i jeśli wierzysz w to za dobrą monetę, jesteś uważany za głupca. Mówi, że życie jest obecnie praktycznie normalne tam, gdzie on jest, mieszkając w rozległym mieście, prawie bez „przypadków” zakażenia wirusem i bez szczepionki, jak mówi dr Rushworth, taka sytuacja jest wyraźnie niemożliwa, gdyby wirus był tak zły, jak przedstawiono.
Tak, na wiosnę nastąpił gwałtowny wzrost, po typowej epidemii w Wielkiej Brytanii, nie wszystkie obszary doświadczyły skutków w tym czasie. Latem infekcje dróg oddechowych zwykle ustępują, ale zaczynają narastać jesienią, obszary, które wiosną nie zostały poważnie dotknięte chorobą, padły jesienią. Przyjęć z chorobami układu oddechowego do mojego lokalnego szpitala doraźnego w grudniu 2019 r. Było około 400 tygodniowo, nie mam jeszcze najnowszych danych, ale wkrótce złożę wniosek o FOI.
Mam hipotezę, że SARS-CoV-2 był obecny w Wielkiej Brytanii w październiku 2019 r., Na podstawie pacjentów zgłaszających się z uporczywym kaszlem i łagodną gorączką w ośrodkach pilnej opieki, w których pracuję, a ponadto miałem kaszel trwający 6 tygodni w Październik / listopad 2019. Zbiegło się to z przyjazdem studentów z Chin w październiku również w styczniu 2020 r. Korelacja czy związek przyczynowy?
Alfio Puglisi, who on hell do you think you are?
An animal, a beast, I see
Thank you Dr. Rush for bringing some sanity and perspective to the Covid madness. I have followed the “Covid Pandemic” closely since it began and have been convinced that it was a huge nothing-burger from the start. In fact, mortality numbers are very close to the past three years from all causes. These are numbers that are difficult to dispute as they are freely available to anyone who looks. If there has been no excess mortality over the previous three years then how can Covid be a serious threat? As a geologist who has studied sea levels in the field since the early 1980s, it has been obvious to me that the Covid response was created using highly-biased computer models, exactly the same kind of computer models that have been used to frighten people about so-called Climate Change. People need to understand that computer models are NOT irrefutable fact but merely guesses based on the creator’s personal biases and desire to demonstrate a particular thing. This is usually called GIGO, Garbage In, Garbage Out. Thanks to the MSM, UN, IPPC, and rent-seeking “scientists” people have been convinced that the world is going to end from our use of fossil fuels. In fact, we humans have never had it so good. Anyway, sorry for mounting my soapbox in your comments but I see nothing but bad science behind the Covid scare. Exactly the same kind of bad science that has been used by the CAGW/Climate Change folks for the past few decades.
This is the type of reply when someone asks questions which are against the current narrative. Mr Rushworth‘s arguments are solid and clear. No need to threaten him with a loss of reputation!
Thank you for another brilliant article that I completely agree with. Reference the vaccine, my concern is that it will be mandatory (through the back door) in other words you’ll be allowed to refuse it but if you do you won’t be able to travel abroad and many other things will be denied you. I don’t worry for myself as I am 69 and I’ll have vaccine if I need to travel to Australia where my daughter lives. It’s giving a rushed through vaccine to my grand children that I am concerned about, as we do not know the long term affects. As far as I can see the mass vaccination programme that has started, is the real trial. I will be very interested to read your article on the vaccine and what you have found out through your research.
I agree. I would like to know sebastian s thoughts about it
AhNotepad, as usual you show a gift: to explain or to make people think.
Thanks
Most people have no idea about the big picture, the monetary debt system that is about to go bust by design and other issues far from the “pandemic” that are key components of our society’s machinery and the real reason behind our current situation. In Planet Lockdown Catherine Austin Fitts describe what is happening.
https://youtu.be/C1-0XKYAZII
I think you adress part of the problem very well with this article Sebastian. However the levels of hysteria seen globally are probably due to many separate factors, one of them being explained in the article. Another one is that a lot of huge economical interests and organisations have seized the opportunity to push their agendas, The World Economic Forum even openly admits to it in their book, The Great Reset, that conviniently came out in july of 2020. There are also other huge NGOs that have an interest in pedalling fear for profit and political reasons. So it could very well be part opportunism part political hysteria combined with some pre existing agendas put into overdrive by large NGOs.
The data for SAD (Seasonally Adjusted Deaths) is produced every year in the Uk and I believe other countries in Europe and easily available for yourself. As last year was a light year due to the very mild European winter we would expect a bad year this year because the winter weather has started early (in parallel with the rise in Covid19 deaths). So the SAD deaths vary every year and the figures are on Wikipaedia and other sites of repute. Covid may just be taking what flu would do normally. And even if SAD doesn’t account for all deaths the difference between SAD and Covid19 is not enough to stop the world…?
An excellent article, thanks. My thoughts:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/2020-hindsight-martin-sewell/
I don’t get the point of this article. What should be the reason for the chinese to stage this?
A) Economic reasons like pushing the whole world into chaos to overtake world economy leadership? That would be stupid, because China heavily relies on outside export markets.
B) Economic reasons like pushing the world into a debt crisis so that China can buy the rest of the world easily (like in Africa)? But like mentioned above – the harm to its own export-driven economy would be too much.
C) Showing how fast other countries can also become authoritarian states like china, so that china won’t be pointed at no more when it violates human rights? Would be (at least for me) a little too much effort for this.
I don’t see what the reason for this should be. And I doubt that all of this is staged… Of course politicians overreact – they have to show that they are still able to deal with it. If they cannot show this, they won’t be reelected. And unfortunately they cannot say: “Hey, let’s simply wait, it will all be over soon!” That’s not in the manual for political reactions to emergency events!
>Alfio Puglisi says:
>3 January, 2021 at 11:16
>Free tip: stick to science and avoid conspiracy theories. Reputation is hard to gain, but >easy to lose.
Wise words indeed.
The China-explanation may be right or wrong. But it doesn’t explain the role of WHO (World Hoax Organisation) and the arrival of the PCR test (from Germany) just as it was needed to sustain the illusion of a pandemic.
If you read german, there is much to gain. For example
https://www.rubikon.news/artikel/prost-neujahr. The author Wolfgang Wodarg is a physician and former member of the german parliament (SPD). He managed to counter much of the hysteria in the wake of the swine flu pandemic of 2009, which has extraordinary similarities with the current one.
Hospitals overrun – panic.
Deaths? In the UK the statistics even include at the bottom that anyone who dies within 28 of getting a positive result are classified as being a covid death. Yes, that was a glib example. But if someone dies of a heart attack, who was tested positive for covid at some point in the previous 28 days, they are recorded as a covid death. And now more people than ever are being tested, especially compared to April.
It is a curious thing about facts, but they still have to be interpreted.
I thought something like this early summer and even in fall I was sure, that politics are trying to save their faces and play themselves out off this hole. Not so sure about this anymore. I sure hope that there still is way out this hole. We are living some really weird times.
Thanks
I believe the bullet of the vaccine with coincide with the late spring/summer where the virus will blow away like it did last year
So the government’s can take the credit for what would anyways happen naturally
Rushworth is still downplaying Covid. Sweden in 2020 had its highest excess mortality since 1937: https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1341257074269954049 .
In the US, the increase in mortality is even worse, +15% in just one year: https://twitter.com/jmhorp/status/1340390482602561540
Also, IFR in Sweden is not 0.2% but about 0.6%: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/publicerat-material/publikationsarkiv/t/the-infection-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-in-stockholm-technical-report/
And even just 2% of real long-covid will translate into millions of people affected, possibly for life.
As an RN 14 years, background initially in public health, I think a lot about how people misperceive risk. A classic example is people wont take tylenol because of “liver damage” concerns, but are on 12 prescriptions. Even in my daily life for example, as a skilled long distancing swimmer, people at my local swimming hole freaking out about my open water swimming, usually my response is something like “it is more dangerous to drive here in my car.” I’ve been subscribing to your update for a few months, but at this point the reality of what I am seeing day to day is a reality that is more compelling than any of the arguments you make above. I have never have 40 and 50 year old teachers and nurses be hospitalized with TIA or a pulmonary embolism after getting the flu, but have with covid. I have never had 1/2 the patients on my unit be hospitalized with flu, but have with covid. I have never had coworkers in their 30’s and 40’s be out for several months with the flu, but have with covid. I have never had 80% of my ICU be patients intubated because of the flu, but have with covid. This all just cant be explained away by my selective attention to covid versus flu. I’m currently listening to a podcast with Dr Peter Atia and Carol Tavris, Ph.D. & Elliot Aronson, Ph.D.: Recognizing and overcoming cognitive dissonance. I appreciate the section where they talk about “smart people” getting so entrenched in their ideas, not willing to see new data. I am not saying at all that I am not prone to the same problem, but at a certain point I question whether you are so entrenched in the idea that covid is not dangerous, and that it is all political hype etc, that you are also unwilling to revisit new evidence and change your position.
Yes Alfio Puglisi your comments are correct but there are also Prof. Bhakdi and his Prof. wife in Germany who have written a very good book entiltled “Infection Nightmare”. Prof. Bhakdi has already said that the PCR Test promoted by Drosten is meaningless.
Thanks, Doctor Rushworth, for your effort to bring facts and clarity. I guess you’re very busy and receive lots of requests, but I would appreciate if you could analyse and comment this paper (https://cormandrostenreview.com/report/), which harshly criticizes the original paper that was the foundation for the PCR tests. This looks like a scandal.
This is my take on the vaccine
https://drsircus.com/general/medical-massacre-or-enlightened-medicine/
I am torn between finding your arguments here plausible or a conspiracy theory. On the plausible side is the fact that after a year I know no one directly who has had the disease. At the friends or relatives of friends, 3 all recovered. Only at the distant acquaintances level do I know of 3 deaths – one elderly the other two not. On the conspiracy side it is the young deaths which bother me. OK it is only a few hundred under 60 with no pre-conditions but in a non Covid year would there be any?
The explanation is very simple. The numbers being reported are wildly exaggerated. Every week there are confirmed stories of deaths by suicide, car accident, gunshot, etc., having been reported as Covid deaths. A woman in England was arrested last week for the phoney charge of public disorder for taking a video of her almost empty local hospital, while the government was claiming that hospitals were being overwhelmed. We’re being lied to on a scale never seen before.
Is the reaction to covid any more hysterical than the reaction to 9/11 and the subsequent war on terror? Like the war on terror the costs and impacts on our lives will be felt for decades.
I totally agree with your excellent article, but I have a slightly different twist on the exit plan that our dishonest politicians have regarding the pandemic. Anyone with more than 2 functioning brain cells, which includes most politicians, clearly knows that lockdowns don’t work, but as you said, they’re in too deep to admit they were wrong. So I believe they will continue the lockdowns until the virus naturally burns out, as all viruses eventually do, and at that point they will claim that it was their lockdowns that beat the virus.
THe mass hysteria is definitely induced by (at least) exaggerating the dangers at hand. The reason and – for China’s part – business and power opportunities becomes totally clear when we follow up the history of the need for enemies, “biological warfare” and preparedness. There is a very well-researched presentation in German by Paul Schreyer here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSnJhHOU_28 where he puts non-disputed facts and political goals into perspective. There is the will to change societies “for the better” by keeping them in fear in order to comply with the destruction and transformation of the individualistic and capitalistic lifestyle. China serves more and more as a role model. Of course, human corruption is taken into account so that global players are exempt.from the transformation.
I do wonder how much Sweden is part of the whole game, by being given the role of a “dissident who fails”.
Are we being allowed to question and correct the reporting? Not in the other European countries. And in Sweden?
I definitely agree that politicians are trying to save face. No politician wants to be viewed as indecisive, or one who changes their minds or refuses to “follow the science.” They saw what the Chinese were doing, so they blindly decided to follow suit, and they are still doing it.
But I am not buying the idea that the Chinese did this to create economic chaos in the West. Sure they could have chosen their own series of face-saving tactics, like locking people down to prevent spread. But the idea that the images were spread in order to foment economic chaos is a bot of a stretch. The Chinese economy relies much too much on exports for that.
Yes people are dying and causing more problems for ICU units than ever before….yet we are being lied to even about that, about what is happening in hospitals…so trust is going out the window for those who still have a rational sense and for the rest its blind obedience, fear, do what you are told…..there is no one to trust in the public sphere…..so we need to listen to individual doctors and create our own concensus by listening deeply to them.
And junkmmwnomad when Sebastian said “covid is nowhere near as bad as it is portrayed by the mainstream media.” Of course it is not that bad, meaning not bad enough to destroy the world, destroy the econony, millions of people lives, drive suidcide and depression rates way up, dump experimental vaccines on the public, allow politicians to play doctor, censor useful treatments……and keep people inside when the sun itself brings relief with more vitamin D….
Hi Antony,
Check out website euromomo.eu It’s the EU’s own gold standard website for EU countries reporting all cause mortality on a week by week basis.
I don’t know where you are situated, but for the U.K. , Sweden and several others, all cause mortality all autumn has been broadly in line with expected norms. That very little if any increase over 2017, and 2018 seasons.
This does not apply to every country. Some like Germany avoided the first wave so are unfortunately playing catch-up this autumn.
Well said, thank you so much. Sincerely hoping that more people become enlightened soon.
If I were to believe that anyone would value my opinion, I would have written your exact words. Plus this………Enter the UN and agenda 21 & 2030. Enter the WHO with it’s ties to China and the CDC. Enter the World Economic Forum and it’s New Normal, Build Back Better, socialist indoctrination. Enter the American elitists and their control over Big Tech and MSM. Enter Big Pharma all one in the same. Enter the US election where the mail in ballot situation allowed for massive fraud. Enter other world leaders that were poached into this entire sham of control to result in the Great Reset. I am Canadian and our corrupt Prime Minister has openly admitted that this pandemic is THE opportunity for the Great Reset. These things are all tied together solely for the result of Globalism and financial gain for the world’s richest that meet every year in Davos.
Thank you! I depend on your newsletters for my sanity.
Example from NHS stats site. 2003, UK,Wales and Scotland had 184,000 hospital beds and between Jan and April 2003 157,000 beds were filled during that period. Population of UK 58 million. Now 2020, 120,828 hospital beds and a population of 69 million. Chronic disease especially diabetes ever increasing. That’s what is panicking the Government, overrun health system.Unfortunately Covid 19 seems to kill more people with insulin resistance and diabetes. Vitamin D3 deficiency also linked to Covid 19 Deaths and certainly insulin resistance. Covid is telling the world we have another pandemic and we just cannot see it, vitamin D deficiency.
Happened a few times before
https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-handling-burden-flu-patients/
Great article Sebastion, but only half right I’m afraid in my opinion. There is a Global Agenda they want in place to break down society and rebuild it in their own format. They’re using Corona strains (that’s all the PCR test indicates – there is no isolated strain of covid-19) to bring about the mass hysteria that would result in that change.
Bad flu just goes on in the background, as would this if there was no hype.
Spot on
me oliveria
”Alfio Puglisi, who on hell do you think you are?
An animal, a beast, I see”.
I don’t see how this helps, or even what you are saying. Care to explain?
Sebastian
I have been doing the cost-benefit calculations since March and it was immediately clear the collateral damage of the covid-policies is many dozens of times higher than the possible benefits. I then thought we’d lose 70 years of life for every one we saved. Now I’d put the number near infinite since it is clear we saved almost no-one but lost many. Those calculations have shown up in various parliaments, publications, and lecture halls.
The question of what was going on and the lessons to learn have occupied me since. You ask for explanations.
In June, I gave my best guess as to the herd psychology underlying it all. https://clubtroppo.com.au/2020/06/17/what-kind-of-crowd-are-we-now-seeing-the-5-surprises-in-this-pandemic/
In November I sketched where it might go from here. https://clubtroppo.com.au/2020/11/23/histories-of-the-great-panic/
At the end of March I already sketched the institutional lessons taking as given that we were looking at emotional contagion. https://clubtroppo.com.au/2020/03/26/6-post-corona-institutional-questions/
And in mid March I tried to get the mourning over with for all the losses and lamented what we were going to lose. https://clubtroppo.com.au/2020/03/24/a-lament-for-the-corona-panic-victims/
Best,
Paul Frijters
Sebastian,
I sadly have to agree with this. However plausible it seems, please, please, please stick to the data. You are one of the sane voices in this mess and we cannot afford to lose you. Start a separate blog with your mate and keep this (excellent) one on track.
Lars, if Sebastian has a view with which you do not agree, that’s fine, but that does not make the official narrative correct. Indeed, if you dig into other areas, you can find data, from the official sources which conflict with the official narrative, but they manage to spin the coconut fibre into what they claim is a silk scarf.
How did the panic epidemic get so bad and self sustaining: 1. modern society weaker ability to cope with dead and disease; 2. social medias; they make money when we click and are therefore incentivized to exaggerate threats since humans are hard wired to pay more attention to bad news than to good news. At the same time they face no sanction for lack of accuracy. 3. The medical pharmaceutical complex that will make billions out of government handling of the epidemic, not to mention the non monetary rewards of TV and media appearances of medical “experts”. 4 abysmal public governance: in the US the response has been completely politicized with previously revered institutions such as CDC or NIH failing disastrously and with politicians trying to extract maximum mileage as you explain. Globally the WHO has completely failed to provide leadership and coordinate countries individual responses 5. It would make sense for the Chinese and Russian intelligence agencies to take advantage of the West disarray to add to the disinformation and dysfunction so although I have seen no evidence I suspect it is happening. On how the panic epidemic ends I agree with you though the public in the US is getting numbed to bad news and angry with politicians so they could well decide to end the lockdowns before mass immunization that now looks to be a q3 event.
Spot on analysis! I drew the same conclusion already in June. Governments all over the world have put themselves on a sliding slope from which they can no longer escape. Once the general opinion has been established that isolation, lockdowns and masks work, then more isolation, more lockdowns and more masks must work even better. It will not end until we are all locked down totally.
I agree. As a fellow physician in Sweden I have greatly enjoyed your covid articles, expressed so thruthfully and in a way someone with english as a second language would never be able to. I usually direct all my english speaking friends to your blog, and until now I have only been happy to do so. Please do not speculate on matters you have no greater insight in than the other man.
I have alternative theory
We already had a number of crisis comming our way. Financial and debt crisis, running out of resources and global wanmimg. I’m not an expert on global warming so I really don’t know if it’s a threat. I’m however operating under assumption that it is.
So, to mitigate the problem of financial crisis (wich is yet to come) best thing to do is to find a scapegoat. I bet media will blame the virus for all the unfortunate evnts in comming years.
To mitigate the problem of running out of resources (like oil) we should force the whole world to buy only things that are needed, not waste money on luxuries etc.
To mitigate the problem of global warming we should stop the world. Literally stop nearly all car and plane travel. A year ago we’d say that it’s impossible. Now it’s our reality.
Notice that the pandemic happened in a world, which was rather prepared for lockdowns. We have internet. A lot of jobs can be done online and the ones that can’t probably will never be. We have lots of services that allow us to handle our lives without leaving home. The world could’nt be better prepared for the pandemic.
And then you have a crisis. For a people ruling the world it woud be a shame to waste such a good crisis when you can solve all the problems above (and probably more). However I’m not thinking it’s the goverments who did it. Rather their bosses – central bankers who control goverments and people.
Great comment! Here in California we were hit hard by fires while also being irrationally terrified of COVID. When addressing both hot issues during this bipartisan election year- the liberal media continuously blamed the fires on global warming and the spread of COVID was blamed for lacking a national response by Trump (despite CA’s governor Newsom issuing strict lockdowns and mask mandates). If we truly followed the science we would have handled both issues very differently.
I’ve no idea about the potential China facade. Ultimately I’m not concerned about it. I am concerned about the motives behind continuing to feed the hysteria. ‘Scenarios for the Future of Technology and International Development’ put out in 2010 by the Rockefeller Foundation might be of interest to you.
No matter what the virus is or is not, safe and effective treatments are being suppressed. The studies clearly show the reduced infection and mortality rates when they’re used. Yet we’re being told the only option, that so called magic bullet, is an experimental product with unknown side effects they’ve invested billions into. Mandates are being discussed, despite those of us calling attention to such an outcome ‘conspiracy theorists’. At this point, I equate the term as a badge of honor, as those applying it aren’t capable of critical thinking.
This is a massive psychological experiment. The isolation of our elderly and infirm. The complete upheaval of basic daily life. Unemployment, disappearing small businesses, suicide and overdose, children’s education and social development, constantly changing rules.
I don’t know what to do. People seem to enjoy wearing masks, despite the studies and data showing the opposite intended effects. And they really want to participate in the phase IV of these trials. Even pregnant women! It boggles my mind. Dr. David Martin and several others have an in depth piece on Fauci coming out tomorrow. Lineinthesand.us
We have quite the fight ahead of us.
I believe you are correct. Catherine Austin Fitts said as much. She does the Solari report. Had an excellent interview with RFK jr a little bit ago detailing the financial crisis.
Darlene– Thank you for drilling down to the layer that needs the focus. I hope Dr Rushworth continues to have the courage to do so as well, in spite of ‘cancel culture’ and so on. Sometimes I think the CCP is the most evil regime–ever. Until the globalist oligarchs meet in Davos… In any event, if the culture, society and populous in general in the US has been cowed into giving in to all this hysteria–can the idea of relinquishing the hegemony be far off? That is THE rhetorical question. I desperately hope the fraudulent US election can be overturned and light to shine upon the lies and deceit from these globalists. And, if the truth ever came out about the true nature of the CCP’s human rights abuses–any sane person would be aghast.
Maybe they’re not overwhelmed after all … https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1379012/covid-cases-uk-tier-4-areas-hospital-beds-NHS
Thank you, Dr. Rushworth. In short, what we’ve seen is deadly, colossal stupidity by political leaders, especially in such places as New York City and the UK, where so many nursing home deaths have been directly caused by political decisions and the abuse and neglect in the for-profit nursing homes. I think the media, both mainstream and social deserve a great deal of the blame for this. Mainstream media is kept afloat by advertising dollars from the pharmaceutical industry, and social media companies are heavily invested in the industry. People should go to jail for this. It is nothing short of murder.
Spot on.
“Maybe the goal was to manipulate other countries in to the extraordinary acts of self-harm that ensued. Or maybe that was just a lucky bi-product.”
This would be premised on the false notion that a major exporting nation would benefit from the economic decimation of those who purchase its products.
Only paranoia could result in this belief.
Good article.
I agree with the feedback loop and the vaccine being the only way out for panicky governments that are in too deep. It’s the only exit that avoids them having to confront past errors and may be the only exit that scared populations find acceptable too.
Not so sure with respect to China’s actions but it is a plausible scenario. The fact that they did not carry out the same policies beyond Wuhan does make one wonder if they quickly figured out that the collateral damage was not worth the benefit.
Various comments above saying that Covid is worse than flu. That may be true. It’s also irrelevant. If the lock downs, face masks and all the other paraphernalia have little or no impact on reducing fatalities (which seems to be the case once Covid is in a country) then they make no sense to do, however bad Covid is. They all come with a price to pay too in terms of collateral damage.
Right now, Covid has become a religious type issue. Many people are convinced it is so bad that we must defeat it at all costs, and will not brook argument. Hence, the appeal of vaccines. My instinct though is that the vaccines will end in tears. How can they possibly have been tested for long enough to know the side effects? In this environment, where governments are desperate for an exit route, the temptation to avoid the usual checks and balances is too strong. Again, just like with lock downs, there is safety numbers too if every country approves the vaccine. What regulator would be brave enough to say no?
People should go to jail for this. It is nothing short of murder.
That is absolutely correct
Only problem with what you are saying is that we have rapid global cooling not warming. And its a good issue to consider because the same people are lying about almost everything.
https://coldclimatechange.com/climate-treason/
Spot on summary and although it’s only an assumption as so many other viewpoints around Corona are as well, it makes perfect sense to me. I never quite understood how the virus could have been contained to Wuhan and how it could have been brought under control so quickly. Just received a picture from a friend from a New Year’s Eve party from Shanghai today – no masks, no social distancing, packed dance floor. Yet in Europe we are going from lockdown to lockdown destroying economies and bringing utter misery to millions of people. No statistics, no facts, no proportionality of the consequences of lockdowns vs. mortality rates of Covid, seem to alter the course. I am beyond making sense of any of this and fully buy into the theory that it’s all about keeping face now for the governments who have bought into and fostered this mass hysteria – supported by the media. There is no turning back for them and the vaccine – whether useful or not – is the only way out. Thanks for your observations, it is reassuring to hear that others are of a similar opinion.
For what should they go to jail?
Professor Philip Thomas of Bristol University published a study in early November, which was then published in the Daily Mail, by Medical Editor Stephen Adams, on the 08/11/2020.
The study, which is the only major ”covid vs consequences” study done in UK, answered the question: ”Which is going to kill more lives, covid or the Lockdown caused by covid? (In UK).
Simple question, so what was the answer?
”Lockdown will claim equivalent of 560 000 lives, because of recession”
In contrast, the average age of covid deaths in UK is 82, which means that even if UK ends up suffering 250 000 Covid-related deaths, this would be equivalent to 45 000 average lives lost.
In other words, the Lockdown kills over 10 times as many as covid, and the Lockdown victims are
young people, including children with their lives ahead of them, not 82 year olds who already have lived a long and full life.
Conclusion: The FEAR is the real virus, not covid, and Lockdown is its executioner.
On top of that there is other studies confirming the same point, one of them is a study in US which only compared covid deaths, to lower life expectancy for young children, caused by school closure.
Conclusion: The school closure will by itself cause more loss of lives than covid, again that is the lives of young children with their lives ahead of them, young lives which are now destroyed at so many different levels.
All this is quite obvious and logic, so the real question becomes, why do not more people follow the same line of reasoning as Sebastian Rushworth, and a few other stand up people?
The answer my friends are blowing in the wind, but without a doubt it has ingredients of money, power and fear.
Johnny:
“…we should force the whole world to buy only things that are needed, not waste money on luxuries etc.”
Wow… First off, who is this ‘we’ you speak of? Second, based upon what you say, it sounds like you are ok with some force coming to you and deciding what you can, and cannot have? Or, are you like the elitists and those dictums are only for the ‘others.’
Freedom and Liberty, once lost–is incredibly hard to ever regain…
Thanks! Great post, and sums up my thoughts exactly. Another critical point that keeps coming up is excess mortality numbers (for 2020, re covid, especially in the US). I’d love to see you dive into those numbers with some kind of explanation – are they really as high as reported? If not, why? If so, why? Might be a tall order as the data surrounding this issue is still very unclear. Thanks for your work!
AKthomas:
“who is this ‘we’ you speak of”
I only have theories, but the governent reactions to covid seem to be too coordinated to assume, they weren’t imposed on governments. My theory is that central bankers or some other group have some control over goverments. I must point out – this is only a theory, I have no proof and I’m not forcing you to believe in that.
“it sounds like you are ok with some force coming to you and deciding what you can, and cannot have”
This is a difficult question. Thank you for this one.
I’m all for the liberties and freedom to some point. The dificulty is where it the point when one’s freedom will impact freedom or survival of others? As a philosopher antony de Mello said: would you allow people to hold nuclear bombs in their homes? Of course not, because potential impact is much wider than the area of their house. Same way, would you allow people to heat up the planet for personal pleasure (like driving to a pub) knowing that it may kill everyone in a generation or two from now?
What I’m saying it that the case is more complex than simple pro-freedom vs pro-control choice. It was OK to have absolute freedom few hundred years ago when no matter what you did you couldn’t cause a global scale events. But now the spaceship earth seems to be much more limited, and that’s the only spaceship we have. The problem of freedom became more complex and I just mentioned above out one of it’s many aspects.
Szpitale otrzymują dotacje, jeśli / kiedy mają zgony zakaźne. Szpitale określają śmierć jako zgon, niezależnie od tego, czy pacjent zmarł na zawał serca z powodu ogólnie złego serca. Wypadek motocyklowy, w którym ktoś uderzył głową w szpital i umierał w szpitalu, nazywa się śmiercią zakaźną. Pieniądze mówią, a więc kontynuuje śmierć przez covid BS.
Co ważne, te tak zwane testy COVID NIE SĄ W 100% dokładne. Są tak bardzo wrażliwe, że jeśli masz alergie, masz COVID, jeśli wykonasz test pięć minut po kichnięciu lub kaszlu, masz COVID. Za dużo fałszywych alarmów. Przypadki nie oznaczają śmierci. Media zachowają w tobie strach, nie daj się na to nabrać.
Zwykle można dotrzeć tylko do bardzo ograniczonej populacji dzięki komunikacji, takiej jak blogi i książki. Aby szybko dotrzeć do dużej części populacji, należy zaangażować media. Aby zaangażować media, historia musi przynosić zyski mediom. Sebastian, czy sensowne jest kontaktowanie się z mediami zarówno z faktami naukowymi, jak i pod kątem przedstawienia tych faktów, które zachęciłyby media do poprowadzenia historii? Opierając się na twoich dotychczasowych blogach i wiadomościach, przeczytałem, że obecne postępowanie z Covid-19 powoduje utratę pracy, dodatkowe zgony i zadłużenie, które może prowadzić do poważnych zmian w świecie, jaki obecnie znamy. Byłoby wspaniale, gdyby za sto lat ludzie czytali o tym, jak fakty zostały przekazane przez media, co zmusiło kierownictwo do zwrócenia uwagi i obrania ścieżki naprzód, która zminimalizuje utratę pracy, dodatkowe zgony i obciążenie długiem. Tak trzymaj, Sebastian!
Johnny, “Same way, would you allow people to heat up the planet for personal pleasure (like driving to a pub) knowing that it may kill everyone in a generation or two from now?.
Can you provide the proof for this postulate? The damage that is being done now is killing a lot of people, and they aren’t even allowed to go to the pub.
You pretty much sum up my thoughts as well. I think we as a society (politicians, media and citizens) drastically overreacted in spring 2020 but after the first wave no one dared to admit it. We were all captured by groupthink. And yes for any politician to admit an error of this size…it is political suicide. But it would not stop there…whole parties or governments would break down or loose all public support. So they cling to the vaccine and wait out the natural course of COVID19 with lockdowns so they can tell us that either the vaccine or the lockdowns finally beat this thing. Like a kid caught in a lie and trying to invent ever more lies to cover the first one.
I have found your discussion very interesting as I have followed the whole event reasonably closely or as much as a secondary school geography teacher can. If the class is interested I have shown “Contagion’ at the end of term as I do teach about disease to some 12-13 yr old year classes (Polio/HIV/Ebola for the past 10 years) before we hit the highly constrained exam curriculum in higher years. So I did follow global outbreaks with some interest.
I was aware of things only when Italy came in the news. But having had swine flu in 2009 and heard the ‘cough’ through African airports I moved through then, I was only too aware that this might move with speed.
When my Vet daughter had to relinquish her equipment to the NHS and my dentist son surrendered his PPE stocks, I realised things were serious- this was Mid Feb, preparations were being made as best they could be.
The Edinburgh Usher Institute webinars were extremely educational (still available) the first joint one with China is particularly good as it shows the progress made in China in understanding the disease and the state of the health system in cities, the frank exchange of experience of Chinese Doctors was remarkable and that they had realised testing was not effective and were CT scanning every hospital patient in April spoke volumes. Also doing double lung transplants on 70 year olds which I found staggering.
It was obvious by this time that this was not a simple lung/flu disease although we seemed to only see this.
You are probably quite correct in that it is not a hugely lethal disease for the healthy.
I think I probably had it in March as many children were missing from classrooms, but there was no testing available and I recovered, the doctors were only interested in whether I had been in contact with Italian skiers. That 1/3 of some classes had been off school in the previous 2 weeks seems to have completely been missed.
A slight sore throat, aching joints and lethargy 4 days previously with a 2 day temperature with some surprising delirium, complete lack off energy, and a capacity to sleep for 2 days combined with an overriding indescribable horrible taste in the mouth makes me suspect I have had it but at the time the GP said probably just flu. 5 months later an Abbott antibody test gave a negative result – so I will never know, but I hope my T cells remember.
One of the most frustrating this has been the media coverage. In the UK the press seem to live in a London bubble that has become
Highly political and just seem to focus on criticism of the government without any educational content and scaremongering to sell papers. They are also appallingly free with badly used mis-informative statistics which is almost criminal in educational terms.
The fundamental problem for the U.K. is the overall health of the population which for our demographic like many western countries is top heavy with significant proportion over 55 and large numbers of which are simply obese or morbidly obese. The one category which appears invisible when reports of ‘health’ people succumbing to the disease, plainly obvious when an image is shown of the individual.
The UK is not a healthy nation, and unfortunately quite a lot of NHS staff are equally overweight.
The NHS is a behemoth of incoherent structures and Trusts, functioning on a just in time system that numerous governments have tried to reconcile with increasing drug availability and treatment that the population expects and doesn’t appreciate the expense of.
We have removed effective exercise from our schools with a resulting increase in poor classroom behaviour. The link is obvious if you’ve ever experienced teaching.
Teaching of what is good to eat and how to cook it is a subject focussing on non exam candidates, those who may end up in the lower end of commercial kitchens, even the curriculum here is way out of date (I cover some Home Ec. classes) with an emphasis on carbohydrate as good – it doesn’t teach children how to distinguish the tricks of food manufacturers products in the supermarket. PE teachers try to do what they can but their hands are tied. Many schools sold their sports grounds/have lost their swimming pools (if they ever had one) and the time children get to do activity is cut and cut as results fall ever lower and the curriculum is cut to make the exam results conform to ‘improvements’ in PISA tables. parent’s appear blissfully unaware of this. Don’t get me started on the SQA.
Europe has an ageing overweight population, for them this is a very dangerous disease, and shows why accountancy management of lack of foresight or ‘just in time’ principles will not work in such situations.
For a country with an understaffed NHS, with a shortage of doctors because we have not continued to train for a growing ageing population but rely on importing doctors from elsewhere or cannot retain the ones we do train as we have such a baffling much modified career system run not by those within it but by HR and accountants.
My mother set up the ICU unit of her hospital in the early 70’s, she despaired when the government took the running away from doctors to HR management- this is the end of the health service she said then. She would be appalled to know her state of the art brand new hospital now does not even have an A&E department, but only a minor injuries clinic.
This is why we have a serious problem.
Anaesthetists should be consulted more.
We also need to learn from other systems rather than hanging onto a system that is barely alive and needs radical overhaul.
As for vaccination I don’t hold out much hope, given the interference of the NHS in the recent national Flu jab scheme.
GP’s have done this effectively for over a decade, they know who their patients are, who is most at risk and how to target them.
The recent scheme didn’t in Scotland even manage to post out the appointment letters in time. Most of target the population missed the appointment as a result and were only vaccinated 6 weeks later. Yet I managed to go to my local chemist and pay £10 for a jab the same day.
I have found your discussion very interesting as I have followed the whole event reasonably closely or as much as a secondary school geography teacher can. If the class is interested I have shown “Contagion’ at the end of term as I do teach about disease to some 12-13 yr old year classes (Polio/HIV/Ebola for the past 10 years) before we hit the highly constrained exam curriculum in higher years. So I did follow global outbreaks with some interest.
I was aware of things only when Italy came in the news. But having had swine flu in 2009 and heard the ‘cough’ through African airports I moved through then, I was only too aware that this might move with speed.
When my Vet daughter had to relinquish her equipment to the NHS and my dentist son surrendered his PPE stocks, I realised things were serious- this was Mid Feb, preparations were being made as best they could be.
The Edinburgh Usher Institute webinars were extremely educational (still available) the first joint one with China is particularly good as it shows the progress made in China in understanding the disease and the state of the health system in cities, the frank exchange of experience of Chinese Doctors was remarkable and that they had realised testing was not effective and were CT scanning every hospital patient in April spoke volumes. Also doing double lung transplants on 70 year olds which I found staggering.
It was obvious by this time that this was not a simple lung/flu disease although we seemed to only see this.
You are probably quite correct in that it is not a hugely lethal disease for the healthy.
A slight sore throat, aching joints and lethargy 4 days previously with a 2 day temperature with some surprising delirium, complete lack off energy, and a capacity to sleep for 2 days combined with an overriding indescribable horrible taste in the mouth makes me suspect I have had it but at the time the GP said probably just flu. 5 months later an Abbott antibody test gave a negative result – so I will never know, but I hope my T cells remember.
One of the most frustrating this has been the media coverage.
The fundamental problem for the U.K. is the overall health of the population which for our demographic like many western countries is top heavy with significant proportion over 55 and large numbers of which are simply obese or morbidly obese. The one category which appears invisible when reports of ‘health’ people succumbing to the disease, plainly obvious when an image is shown of the individual.
The UK is not a healthy nation, and unfortunately quite a lot of NHS staff are equally overweight. but to say that is politically incorrect.
The NHS is a behemoth of incoherent structures and Trusts, functioning on a just in time system that numerous governments have tried to reconcile with increasing drug availability and treatment that the population expects and doesn’t appreciate the expense of.
We have removed effective exercise from our schools with a resulting increase in poor classroom behaviour.
Teaching of what is good to eat and how to cook it is a subject focussing on non exam candidates, those who may end up in the lower end of commercial kitchens, even the curriculum here is way out of date (I cover some Home Ec. classes) with an emphasis on carbohydrate as good – it doesn’t teach children how to distinguish the tricks of food manufacturers products in the supermarket. PE teachers try to do what they can but their hands are tied. Many schools sold their sports grounds/have lost their swimming pools (if they ever had one) and the time children get to do activity is cut and cut as results fall ever lower and the curriculum is cut to make the exam results conform to ‘improvements’ in PISA tables. parent’s appear blissfully unaware of this.
Europe has an ageing overweight population, for them this is a very dangerous disease, and shows why accountancy management of lack of foresight or ‘just in time’ principles will not work in such situations.
For a country with an understaffed NHS, with a shortage of doctors because we have not continued to train for a growing ageing population but rely on importing doctors from elsewhere or cannot retain the ones we do train as we have such a baffling much modified career system run not by those within it but by HR and accountants.
This is why we have a serious problem.
So yes you are both correct and also incorrect with reference to the UK.
AhNotepad :
I can’t. I’m no expert in global warming and don’t claim to be. I’m assuming that it is a real danger with delayed effects. My assumption is based on several sources and discussions. I saw several discussions and pro-danger arguments seemed more logical to me. But it’s still an assumption. As for sources, the IPCC report from 2018 was a good summary for me: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/
However if you agree with my logic you still have to find out by your own if you agree with underlying assumption that the climate change is a danger. If you think it doesn’t, the logic gives false results.
I’d be more than happy to stop believing that future is gloomy.
If only this would be true, but it just doesn’t make sense.
That day in March when our prime-minister (in NL) announced that we would go in lockdown he also stated that only a vaccine can help us to return to our “normal” lives (the “new normal” that is, not the old one). Back then nobody knew what was coming, but our leaders already knew what the magic bullet would be? They already knew that we would be in deep shit? Why then were alternatives like HCQ and Ivermectine never seriously investigated, or, worse, downright banned? How come that the vaccines developed by Pfizer, Astra Zeneca, Moderna, J&J etc are all available around the same time (in record time!)? Surely this technology is patented if it’s expected to result in a huge profit so how come they are all based on the same (?) technology?
Why do we ALL need to be vaccinated if this would be a true vaccine and why do the ones who refuse to be vaccinated need to be socially isolated? And why would social distancing still be required even if we would all be vaccinated? Why were zillions of PCR tests already ordered in 2017, 2018 and 2019 by all countries? And what to think of this
https://ec.europa.eu/health/vaccination/ev_20190912_en
where it says “several EU and neighbouring countries are currently facing unprecedented outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases due to insufficient vaccination coverage rates” huh? How come I wasn’t aware of those outbreaks?
https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/
Also pure coincidence? And so on and so on
This was never a pandemic. This is a pLandemic. It’s not about a virus. It’s psychological warfare. It’s about conditioning social behaviour. It’s about total control. It’s part of ..
Your headline was the very first question I asked about the CCP virus on the day our office was shutting down back in March! I was roundly attacked by my coworkers for even questioning the “obviously apocalyptic deadliness” of this unknown virus and my sanity was in question. On DAY ONE! One thing I would add here is that if the vaccine is the Silver Bullet then why are the same players all in overdrive-fear-mongering-mode once again about the “mutations” ? The new strain would herald in V.2 of the last 10 months x 2. That would require more masks, more severe lockdowns, more vaccines, etc, etc. and round and round we go, where we stop? We never stop. No more personal freedoms on ANY level.
Johnny– I suppose we can assume we are one pretty much on opposite ends of the spectrum. I think it is a wee bit of a stretch to liken me riding my four wheeler on a frozen lake (yes–lakes still freeze, in spite of glo-bull warming…) to having a nuclear weapon in my home. Much of what you describe and the way you describe it (we must force…) fits into a version of totalitarianism. From what I’ve seen, one of the many issues I have with that is this thing called’ hypocrisy.’ The oligarchs who preach these things, always seem to have their ‘dachas in the countryside’–while the dirty unwashed proletariat suffers under the burdens they impose. Sorry–not for me..
I speak as a lay person and would value your thoughts.
I have read that all earlier cornavirus vaccine attempts have failed because the vaccines caused a cytokine storm in test animals and had to be abandoned as the test animals died.
I have read that those people dying from covid 19 do so because they experience a cytokine storm.
I have also read that there have been observational studies finding a positive correlation between those having been vaccinated for flu and those dying from covid 19.
So I have two questions –
1) Could the flu vaccine (that is pushed on the elderly) be triggering the cytokine storm that is killing people (mostly elderly) from covid 19?
2) If earlier coronavirus vaccines killed the test animals, why won’t this one end up killing the humans it is being tested upon?
I would like to point out two things:
First, wouldn’t the death toll of the pandemic have been much higher if the lock-down measures would not have been taken? Is there a good argument available?
Second, to my opinion the reason for the persistence of the crisis (of mind?) may be the “Our boys didn’t die in vain” syndrom as it is very nicely described by Yuval Noah Harari in his book “Homo Deus” (p. 302). This syndrom was observed first in the battles between Italy and the Austro-Hungarian empire in the beginning of the first world war. After the first lost battle the Italian leaders simply didn’t want to admit that they wrongly estimated the power of their enemies and, instead, continued the battles with increasing more death tolls.
With respect to cv19 I have the impression that neither main stream media nor politicians want to admit that they were wrong with their first measures against the disease and therefore continue with the wrong measures, making everything worse and worse.
I think mass hysteria is what’s going on.
Probably fueled by Big Pharma (sell on fear and spending millions on pitching stories to media that serve their narrative), Media (sell on fear) and Politicians (sell on fear to leverage for image as saviors).
Keep up the good work Sebastian!
None of this is as mysterious as it seems if you consider one key underlying assumption: This is NOT a medical/epidemiological issue. It’s a smokescreen for a much broader political-economic effort to deconstruct western society and remake it (“build back better”, they call it) in a fully socialist/totalitarian form. It’s driven by the World Economic Forum and Klaus Schwab, who himself said that the COVID-19 pandemic was the opportunity they needed to destroy capitalist society and remake it from the ground up “in their own image.” Search on “The Great Reset” and “Agenda 2030”, and you’ll see what this is all about. It’s a triumvirate of Schwab, George Soros, and Bill Gates.
I’m with you there
Stefan, “things would have been worse if we hadn’t locked down” is a false flag. The WHO say lockdowns are no good, more than 50 years of studies into masks say masks don’t work, and children who are brought up to be normal, getting dirty, close contact with pets, so not living with sanitising everything, get ill less than the clean living children. Further look at the case of the Diamond Princess. Loads of old people, limited treatment, air conditioning etc, and only a few died.
Similar happened in winter 2017-18 in NHS. Only we didnt react in panic and shut down the country, and because it was ordinary flu, and not novel, we didnt have the Niall Fergusons of this parish jumping on egotistical bandwagons.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46399090
Sebastian. I like your hypothesis. It is a neat way to describe possible drivers for the lemming like actions of liberal western democracies. Certainly we have been in a similar place before in the UK, vis winter 2017-18, where we had over 50,000 excess deaths from that years flu. For just that winter period!
See a headline from January 2018 that could have today’s date on it!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5229733/Thousands-NHS-operations-cancelled-winter.html
As reported by the sainted BBC
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46399090
I agree with your analysis. An additional factor is the way deaths have been linked to Covid 19 in the UK. Any death within 28 days of a positive Covid test is a “Covid death”. Of course this massively overestimates the number of Covid deaths. Imagine calling any death within a month of having the common cold, a “cold death”. But is difficult for the government to row back on this definition without being accused of either massaging the figures or misrepresenting the deaths in the first place.
This would matter so much if it were not for the prevailing view in the West that death should be avoided at all costs. Remarkable progress in the treatment of many diseases has led to doctors being deified, with the power of life over death. So that any death must be a failure.
Doctors have happily endorsed the belief that, God-like, they know everything. Death certificates never have “old age” on them, leading to a fantasy that death is always caused by a specific condition or disease, which is, therefore, treatable. And if it can be treated, it should be. Nobody should live a minute less than the maximum possible time.
The public shares this belief. And if someone does succumb to a theoretically treatable condition, it must be someone’s fault: it was the overworked nurse that missed the signs of deterioration, the exhausted doctor who missed an unlikely diagnosis, but not the hospital management that left a ward understaffed, or a medical post unfilled because locum doctors are too expensive. And, of course, never the government of the day that had underfunded the health service. So the politicians get off scot-free.
Until now. Now that governments have taken it upon themselves to wipe out Covid 19, by restricting travel, preventing socialisation, imposing lockdowns, then any “Covid death” can be blamed on them for not doing enough. So they are competing to be the most aggressive with these controls. In the UK the leader of the opposition, rather than presenting an alternative approach, is calling rabidly for even more stringent lockdowns.
Meanwhile lives shortened by deprivation, mental illness, educational failure and the withdrawal of normal investigations and treatment are overlooked.
Another angle Sebastian. Where has global flu gone thus year? CDC in the USA is saying its infection rate is 0.01%?
WHO saying its not as prevalent, but trying to offer reasons.
Ergo is Covid really what in the past would have been an unnamed bad influenza event?
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/great-2020-seasonal-fluinfluenza-disappearing-act?
https://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/updates/latest_update_GIP_surveillance/en/
Firstly in general I feel that your analysis is on target. Some questioning comments may be from “Zealots”, but in case not the statement that China would not want to harm the West since it relies on selling us stuff does not really stand up. For instance historically speaking what did great empires do? Did Napoleon Bonaparte worry about Frances brandy exports ? Did Adolph Hitler worry about selling Krupp’s steel ? What about the Romans – well they wanted our tin etc. NO they wanted power & domination ! Anyway the very question ignores our absolute dependance on Chinese imports – Here in the UK virtually every product, both cheap and expensive has “Made in China” imprinted on it ! And vital parts of our national infrastructure are also dependant on China, think Huawei and even some Nuclear Power projects. They already have us, so why wouldn’t they want to make sure ?
One of your replies went of on a tangent about climate change. This is a point I have pondered on in the past. Is there a link between Covid lockdown and an expected climate emergency? The cooling scenario is scary, and predominated in the late 1960’s – A new Ice Age. At that time – in my youth – I listened (and recorded) a BBC radio play detailed below:
THE WORLD IN WINTER
BBC Radio – Monday 25 March 1968
https://genome.ch.bbc.co.uk/search/0/20?adv=0&q=the+world+in+winter+&media=all&yf=1923&yt=2009&mf=1&mt=12&tf=00%3A00&tt=00%3A00#search
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World_in_Winter
A play for radio by Jon Rollason from the novel by John Christopher
.with Jack Watling
Rosalind Shanks , Glyn Houston and Dennis Alaba Peters
A dramatic fall In the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s atmosphere leads from a severe winter to a new Ice Age. Together with large numbers of Europeans. Andrew Leedon seeks sanctuary in Nigeria.
Produced by KEITH WILLIAMS
Yes scary, I remember a line that England would only be able to support a Greenland size population. I hope that our politicians response to the Virus is not based on such a apocalyptic vision, if so be scared !
I work for a company with multiple plants in China and I have a direct report who has worked in China for the past year. The company I work for takes a conservative approach relative to COVID and has experienced very low (30,000 people, so the numbers are statistically significant. My direct report has worked in 3 cities in China, including Wuhan. He tells me that China had a strict shutdown and continues to use face masks and social distancing, despite the reported low infection rates. I realize that numbers reported by China government are likely skewed, but I have first hand data that suggests the outbreak is under control in China. This seems to directly conflict with the “masks and shutdowns don’t work” perspective. I have read many articles promoting both perspectives regarding COVID, but I think the truth lies someplace in between.
I think your analysis is good up to where you say: So, the only way out of the hole is with a magic bullet. And that magic bullet is the vaccine.
There is no magic bullet. I agree with Harley Smedlapp. Even people who haven’t researched much, but who are skeptical about what’s happening around the world, must see that this is not about a virus. In Europe there are no excess deaths, nor are there in the US. Still the message is the same everywhere: lockdown, masks, a-social distancing. It’s dehumanizing us and almost 11 months on you simply cannot see it as unintentional.
From the onset a vaccine has been portrayed as the only solution. The ONLY solution. By governments all over the world that are connected to WHO. Medicines that work are intentionally ignored and even forbidden for use. Good scientists are demonized, good science shoved away and replaced by bad science. Statistics are being ignored.
And all along the way it is the WHO preaching their cultish measures. After having changed the definition of a pandemic in 2009 they now even have changed the definition of herd immunity, stating it can only be achieved through vaccination as our only “saviour”.
WHO gets it’s funds not only from countries, but also from pharmaceutical corporations, from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (biggest sponsor after US). And then there is GAVI.
The only path to salvation is to vaccinate the entire world. And even vaccination is not going to let humanity go back to normal.
These words were spoken first by Bill Gates. Tedros ghebreyesus has repeated these words.
This is not a pandemic. It’s a plandemic. It has all been planned and is now being played out by corrupt politicians who see more in following an agenda that is (hidden in plain sight!) supposed to hail in a new world order. Most of the pieces of the puzzle can be found scattered around the internet. Not in shady places, but on websites of WHO, WEF, EU, and more.
Meanwhile the whole Covid-19 narrative has changed into a cult for ordinary people. Those who are most afraid and egoistic are those who see lockdowns, masks and a-social distancing as their rituals. Their only salvation is vaccination. Not just for them, but for everyone. All those who do not consent, who do not follow their cult, are seen as heretics. A new inquisition will be put in place. People are already betraying neighbours, police fine people who hug each other, who eat an apple or drink coffee outside, because they take off their masks…
There is mass hysteria, yes. But none of this has anything to do with a virus…
Ah, and overrun hospitals? That is nothing new with flu and can be explained quite easily.
With the aging of the population hospitals should never have been made “lean” as they are now (for cost reduction purposes). In the Netherlands for instance we have half the number of ICU-beds than a few years ago, while there is steady population growth and there are more and more elderly.
And with the PCR-gate that is in place, lots of staff are sitting idly at home in quarantine because they have been tested positive (and are in most cases asymptomatic).
It’s a recipe for disaster.
‘Facts’
Alfio, if out of thousands tested for a Virus only one hundred test Positive, and out of that hundred only ten have the symptoms
ascribed to the Virus, would you search for a cauise other than the Virus that would explain the symptoms ?
You’re wrong. Germany has a population of 80 million, and 34k covid deaths logged. That’s 0.04% not 4%.
Sebastian,
Excellent summary.
I believe that you are right, if only because you present incontrovertible facts, although I would downplay the notion that the Chinese government had any plan to de-stabilize the West. I think that they created their show, at least initially, for their own internal short-term interests, once they realized that they had a problem. The initial reactions of other governments were also short minded and opportunistic. Following the Chinese precedent is the perfect response for politicians that only value their own interests and had no clue on a better reaction that would actually save lives.
Afterwards, it was just a perfect storm situation. There are lots of different groups with their own interests and agendas that saw their opportunity to make money or improve their position in one way or another.
So, I don’t see a big conspiracy, but a large number of people trying to take advantage of a situation without caring much on the consequences. This is more or less the normal situation, but in this case I fear that the consequences might have gotten out of control.
With respect to the way out, I also think that you are right. Vaccines are so convenient at this point … They are the perfect solution now that “herd immunity” is no longer a viable outcome for a pandemic.
Italy was ahead of Wuhan.
“SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating in northern Italy since December 2019: Evidence from environmental monitoring”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7428442/
Collective hysteria is exactly correct. The virus was circulating in my community starting in mid-January. People were sick, and recovered. No hyperbolic headlines, no overflowing hospitals, no measurable concerns. The local health officials seemed unalarmed, uninformed and unconcerned. The politicization of COVID is inexcusable. The very reality that it as been used to erase life as we knew it, and even go as far as contributing to stealing of an election is hard to comprehend. The fact that many Americans remain hysterical and falling for the fake narrative is also hard to acceptt. Who would have thought that Americans could be so easily controlled? I will look forward to your further research on vaccines. I agree that its being using by some as the answer, but there is a dark side. With hundreds of billions of potential revenue there will certainly be decisions made that aren’t in the best interest of mankind. The discussion of passports necessary to participate in society, education and even jobs is frightening. Way too many seem willing to give up their freedoms in hopes that sine utopian form of government will save them.
I hope you will look at the papers Dolores Cahill mentions about the vaccines and cytokine storms mentioned here ….https://gab.com/DaveCullen/posts/105491260886068725 I think the original video has been removed from bitchute but would love a second opinion on it
I live in Hong Kong. i do believe that people in this part of the world have both greater immunity through exposure to similar viruses and they have better metabolic health and higher levels of vitamin D through better diets etc. In Hong Kong, roughly 0.1% of the population has ever tested positive for Covid, and we test a lot here. Covid will end up accounting for 0.2% of the deaths in 2020 when all the final numbers are in. So the prevalence is very low. That does not stop the ridiculous measures however, based on the hysteria and the need locally to keep the population under control.
same in Shanghai
I do hope for the concussion of the article to happen and that we will all go on about our lives.
I agree but I don’t think the two conclusions are mutually exclusive. I don’t think everyone is in on it, so some leaders are probably trying to cover their arses.
Thanks, Sebastian. Guessing you have already this 2010 Spiegel article re the vaccine industry:
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/reconstruction-of-a-mass-hysteria-the-swine-flu-panic-of-2009-a-682613.html
And that you listened to Alex McCarron’s interview of Michael P. Senger, a couple months prior to your excellent conversation with him:
https://escapefromlockdown.buzzsprout.com/1013854/5638624-episode-20-michael-p-senger
Mark, this is an excellent source for visualizations that provide context on deaths by presenting excess mortality stats for Europe over the years and across countries. Be sure to explore the whole page, take advantage of the definitions they provide, and toggle the options. Fairly intuitive interface:
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps#excess-mortality
There are some good presentations on YouTube from people who provide reasoned perspective on “case” and death stats, and on hospitalizations/ICU stats. Among them is Ivor Cummins, who has a channel there.
“In the UK, deaths are seen as COVID death if the person died 28 days after being positive. ”
I read that in Sweden it’s something similar, I’ll have to ask Dr Rushworth what’s going on with that
https://www.news24.com/news24/world/news/covid-19-deaths-top-4-000-in-under-fire-sweden-20200525
” “In Sweden, anybody who has the diagnosis of COVID-19 and dies within 30 days after that is called a COVID-19 case, IRRESPECTIVE OF THE ACTUAL CAUSE OF DEATH. And we know that in many other countries there are other ways of counting that are used,” he told AFP.” (Tegnell)
So it looks like the official deaths of Sweden are inflated, just like in the UK. It’s totally irresponsible to count deaths like that. You’re supposed to look for a causal link before you attribute it to the virus. WTF?
Dr Rushworth, I don’t follow much of your reasoning including why the Chinese government would have initially sought to suppress public discussion of COVID-19. You suggest that this was done because they quickly realised that covid-19 “wasn’t very serious”. But if it wasn’t serious wouldn’t it basically just “blow over” anyway all by itself?
However, my overarching feeling is that you need to further interrogate the fundamental premise underpinning much of your analysis – your belief that COVID-19 isn’t “very serious”. Consider the US situation: official statistics indicate about 0.1% of the US population has already died due to COVID-19, and in New York City the statistics are 0.3% of the population has died due to covid. How is this possible if the IFR is under 0.2%? One possibility is misattribution. However, look at overall mortality: deaths in the USA are almost 20% higher than expected from March-December (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-death-toll-us.html). A 20% jump in overall mortality in a country is an absolutely massive event.
You really should check this Twitter thread about the development of this Mass Hysteria. Was it all benign? No! More like a confluence of aligning interests in the WEF, Big Pharma, politicians and media to all feed at this. China overreacting created a crisis they could really get behind. Its not the first false alarm supported by PCR. https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1345751461771284482?s=20
I don’t think all the mess can be explained by a single cause.
1. Like everyone else, journalists have mouths to feed and must write what they are paid for. That money largely comes from advertising revenues these days. If you look at the amount of drug advertisement in the media you know whom they can’t afford to alienate, for example with reports that might hurt the sales of vaccines (that means anything but fearmongering). And as mentioned already, the WHO also depends on big pharma.
2. Independant financial experts were warning of an inevitable economic crash for years. The current crash was triggered by the shutdowns, but not caused. It had to happen anyway sooner or later, but now it can be blamed on a virus. The real reasons are way too complex to explain here, it’s a systemic problem. The short version is that it’s about few people getting richer while the rest gets poorer. The small firm sector is plunged into ruin so it can be bought up cheaply by the big players. Jeff Bezos made $75 billion wiith Amazon while most local retailers where forced to close in many countries. Elon Musk even managed to increase his fortune by 500% last year.
3. A fearful population is easier to control for the government. Civil rights and liberties can be taken away and laws can be passed that were impossible under normal circumstances. Some of them can be justified with the pandemic while others go under the radar because all the media attention is on the virus. As someone who tries to avoid wearing a mask when possible (here in Germany we have to wear them even in pedestrian areas with 10m wide streets) I feel like living in North Korea.
P.S.: Regarding the vaccine, think of the hastily developed swine flu vaccine that has done more harm than good back then, especially in Sweden. Proper testing of a vaccine takes many years, getting the corona vaccine is like playing Russian roulette in my eyes.
Ray, here is an apocalypse forecast https://www.deagel.com/forecast. This is for 2025. The site format has been changed to make it more difficult to pick up the details, but if you look down the list to find the UK, you will see a red down arrow and a figure of 14. That is the population forecast in millions. It is not a reduction, it is the guesstimated total, so about the same as Zambia now. Greenland is not listed, so has probably melted, or has an extra mile of ice.
Stephen, it’s a 20% increase in the number of people dying, not 20% of the population. It is a relative figure, not absolute, therefore signifigant perhaps, but hardly a “massive event”
AhNotepad yes I understand that it’s not 20% of the population!
A key point is that the amount of excess deaths (i.e. the gap between observed and expected deaths) in the USA is quite large and something that would have been noticed and been a large societal event, likely regardless of the other factors discussed by Rushworth which he thinks promoted a state of mass hysteria.
Whether societal responses to COVID-19 have been excessive is still a reasonable question (I think in some respects they probably have been, and in many other respects no), but I’m not sure it’s reasonable to claim “collective mass hysteria”.
AhNotepad, one other thing, this short paper is worth a read re: the USA: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761.
One thing you’ll see is that in the hardest hit states like New York there was 65% increase in deaths (relative to the expected number of deaths) between March 1 and August 1. That’s quite an increase…!
The catch with China data is: do they (mass) test? If not and the virus is endemic it is invisible because the clinical symptoms are not very different from other respiratory diseases. Of course there may be symptoms specific to covid, but they seem to be rare. See Rushworth’s “front line” reports.
The question is if a state has an interest in keeping the situation going. China called the epidemic over end of March so apparently they did not.
As to the containment story: there were roughly one billion Chunyun journeys until Jan 23. Wuhan is in central China so many went throgh the city. (Chunyun is the name of the travel season around Chinese New Year) I do not see how an invisible respiratory virus can be “contained” if you quarantaine the outbreak city only two days before Chinese New Year (25 Jan). I think “containment of respiratory viruses” is a (Western?) virologists fantasy and China plays with that fantasy.
isn’t it well known that as people get older vaccines become less effective! trying to teach a broken immune system how to fight a virus is just plain stupid. I have worked most of my life servicing and testing complex laser systems and if I approached fixing this quite complex problem in this way then nothing would ever get fixed. Fix the immune system first then not only have you sorted this Covid 19 problem you have probably sorted out the answer to reducing all other Chronic diseases. (Ah. but then we create another problem, we will have to many people on this Earth!)
A clue to the fix…. Summer and winter, especially autumn something happens in nearly all life forms.
(another clue – Sunlight)
But this happens most winters, you only have to look at the newspaper headlines from 2018, 2017, 2015 etc to see that this is normal.
These articles might be of interest:
https://ayavela.medium.com/china-and-the-great-reset-f111d297853c
https://jordanschachtel.substack.com/p/chinas-covid-19-success-is-a-mirage?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=copy
Assuming the virus was really new in China in December. Then we can assume China had initial problems it needed to deal with (this is what John Ioannidis told me). (There is the Wuhan lab accident story which would push the new virus wave to October/November, turning the February wave into an ordinary flu wave which was made a covid wave only by the test.)
But the disinfection action on the pictures has nothing to do with the actual virus. So there are two actions: medical against real virus, and spectacle. So the question is: why did they do the spectacle? Show off as a strong state? Curb down the social media panic in China? Scare Western virus sissies? The alternatives aren’t mutually exclusive. Against the latter: In Jan/Feb China could probably not foresee that the world would enter deep panic. In the end there were public health services everywhere and one could have assumed they’d act rationally.
Go, check for yourself. You will easily find that even in Germany hospitals are sometimes overwhelmed during a bad influenca season. Let alone Italiy. But usually, we simply don’t care. Unfortunately, we have no valid data how much harm Covid-19 did compared to the lockdowns etc. Let’s assume that Sars-COV-2 would really be a much more deadly virus compared to influenca. Why did more than 5000 ICU beds “vanished” in german hospitals from August to November 2020? I don’t talk about free ICU beds, but the total number of all beds available.
Yes too conspirational on China, not settled yet is the original source of the virus either. But absolutely correct about the hole the global establishment have dug us all into.Whether or not the vaccine stops infectious spread is still not known, and what will happen when the next virus arrives as it certainly will.
Stephen, did you grab the orignal data from the, say, last 30 years and run T-tests? An increase of x percent does not mean anything. You need to know the standard deviation, for example. A difference of 50% might be not significant at all, while 5% difference can be highly significant. It all depends of the data. T-test is a built-in function in Excel. You don’t need any advanced expertise for that. However, it might be time-consuming to find the data and convert them to an appropriate format. You need to convert absolute numbers to a rate of mortality, since in most countries polulation has increased in the last 50 years. In termes of statistics it is rubbish to compared 2020 to, say, the last 5 years. You need a much larger date range of at least 20 to 30 years.
I’m about to do this for many european countries. It’s a time-consuming and tedious work. It is something the authorities should do not me. I am paying them for it with my taxes!
I do not believe in big conspiracy but in big business trying to take advantage as long as the panic continues. So does China. The advantages for China are great.
Material: “Foreign investors pile back into booming China” (FT, Nov 18): “The interest to invest in China and China logistics is . . . everywhere,” he (George Agethen, senior vice-president, Asia Pacific, at Ivanhoé Cambridge Group) added. “There’s not a single investor I know who doesn’t think it’s a good idea.” People forget that the average income in China has risen tremendously in the last decade. They can get along without foreign trade for one or two quarters without much harm.
But the immaterial advantage is even bigger: China acts rationally and goes back from an epidemic to good old normal as quickly as possible, whereas Western states keep going on with the panic, “new normal” fantasies, and partial ruin of their societies. Where would you invest in the future? What are Western values worth if people find it acceptable to lock down e.g. Melbourne for months?
lots to think about
Germany, health care situation. The Helios hospital corporation publishes its utilisation data.
https://www.helios-gesundheit.de/qualitaet/auslastung/
Result: In all 100 hospitals together about 20% *less* utilisation than in the previous year. A dangerous virus should yield a *much higher* utilisation than normal.
The most impressive cognitive aspect is that even if you point panic people directly to that data they do not “see” it.
Dr Rushworth
What is current occupation rates i Swedish hospitals and in intensive care units compared to normal?
One of the things to note is from a blog on the Lockdown Sceptic website yesterday, in that those opposed and critical of lockdowns have lost the argument with the public. We used argument from logic and facts, our opponents used argument from emotion and moral truth. The latter has won the majority over and no amount of convincing will get them to change their mind – already rhetoric of “blood on their hands”, “misinformation” and “extremist” is being aired by politicians and health professionals. An argument that uses the hysteria covered in this article but then sells the solution of lockdowns, loss of civil liberties and loss of freedoms to create a utopian ideal of safety. Any safety measure is deemed better than risk. And that those measures should be enforced by law. The cost of a single life lost by Covid is deemed one life too many, to the point where lives lost by lockdown measures are deemed a price worth paying – the emotional arguments of the human cost of lockdown is simply dismissed as a distraction from the human cost of Covid-19. Anyone who thinks that the vaccine is an exit strategy will be sorely mistaken, because I am seeing rhetoric from our politicians and Government advisers that the restrictions and measures we have now will remain post-vaccine. The cries from the voting public will be “never again”. We still have the measures implemented after numerous terror attacks twenty years on.
Mkjj123says, no I haven’t run T-tests on a large dataset.
That would be worthwhile for sure but also consider the following: during the first wave deaths were 65% higher than expected between March 1 and August 1 in the hardest hit states in the USA (see https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771761). 65%! My guess would be that this is highly significant difference.
Ulf Martin,
Re: Germany, health care situation you mentioned don’t you also have to take into account the effects of viral suppression strategies/efforts? I.e. you need to consider the counterfactual scenario: what would be the utilisation rate if these suppression measures (or mitigation measures) weren’t being implemented?
Well, the situation is the same since they publish the data. So no effect of measures visible. There is also ICU data. Utilisation in June the same as in late December. But 6500 fewer beds. So politicians, who tell about overwhelming health care situation, at the same time have reduced the capacity instead of increasing it… Or Euromomo, Germany: no excess deaths the entire year.
https://www.clemensheni.net/am-30-dezember-2020-so-wenige-intensivpatienten-wie-am-18-juni-2020-aber-ueber-6500-betten-fehlen/
https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
Whatever data you take: Germany at no time saw a critical situation.
Wow, quite a slew of speculations you have set off with your article, Sebastian.
I found the idea of China staging the whole unnecessary clean-up intriguing. But it becomes a massive conspiracy, to sat the least. Despite rather tight Chinese control of (social) media, would we (the West) not find out sooner or later nonetheless? People do not like to be locked up, even if the supreme leader calls for it. We are talking millions of people here.
You can of course pile one conspiracy on top of another. The West fell for China’s stage show, but realized it too late. When they realized it, it was already too late and they had to play along rather than disclosing the scam. Now the only way out is a magic bullet.
Or this is all a big planned scam by Big Pharma, Big Tech & Big Gov. They are all it in because they want to suppress us consumers and turn us into obedient catlle. Yes, this world has aspects of Animal Farm and 1984. Still, I find the idea in all its consequences too fictional to be believable.
As to whether the “new normal” will persist I think the German philosopher Peter Sloterdijk is right: “the ‘great change’ is always an illusion. The world did not essentially change after WW1, except that women entered the working world, there was no basal change after WW2, except the the American way of life came to us and we learned over night to live by credit. If the world changed then in the sense of more relaxations and ease. We do not see these in the case of corona but grapple with complications and restrictions,which one wants to get rid of. Therefore one senses a nostagia for the jauntiness there was before.”
https://www.bild.de/politik/kolumnen/kolumne/peter-sloterdijk-ist-es-legitim-vor-corona-keine-angst-zu-haben-73441584.bild.html
Facts? Really? Try looking into the ‘facts’ of this scam. Otherwise, not worth answering.
Thank you Fran Kirk for the links. I deal with Aya Velazquez in my story. I find it unbelievable that China cooperates with the Western big tech corporations. China has all that high tech on its own, there is certainly annoyment that Huawai cannot sell its 5G tech to many Western countries, and in the end, why would Western high tech corporation be interested in a *Western* great reset? There is no great reset in China or Eastern Asia. Instead, they launched the biggest free trade zone in the world in November.
https://weltexperiment.com/20814.html
Ulf Martin,
The critical question is why Germany “at no time saw a critical situation” (as you put) during the pandemic? I assume you think this is because the virus isn’t very dangerous (which is one hypothesis) whereas other people no doubt have other explanations for this which we’d need to also consider the relevant evidence for.
I live in Melbourne, Australia, and COVID-19 skeptics might similarly point to how we don’t have excess deaths – nor has there been a critical situation at any point during the pandemic. But the valid counter-point is that the aggressive measures used to suppress the virus and additional behavioural changes by the public (e.g. working from home, sheltering in place) contributed to this outcome. The same arguments may hold for the German situation you’re describing.
A great article, as usual. I feel the same. I am a 78yr-old Brit living in Norway. I see my home country from a safe distance, under the present circumstances. I don’t deny that there is a flu-like illness circulating, but have been sceptical from the outset, as governments worldwide were singing from the same hymn sheet. I am even more so now, as I see the ridiculous lengths to which governments have gone to perpetrate the covid lie. They have dug themselves so deep in the mire of lies, that it is hard to get out. What I don’t understand is why Norway is playing catch up in their ways of dealing with the “threat.” They should by now be seeing that there was an overreaction by other governments, such as the UK, and avoided the same trap, but they aren’t. They are treading exactly the same path and introducing the same methods of masks, quasi lockdowns and vaccination. This makes me question the real agenda, which I am beginning to think is of a more sinister kind, behind a covid smokescreen. I would be pleased to be wrong, and only time will tell.
Stephen,
I consider lockdowns a severe mistake. However, I would say that we’ve had relatively light lockdowns in Germany so far. In the southwest (where I live) it is now forbidden to leave the house between 8 p.m. and 5 a.m. There is probably not any evidence whatsoever for this. Not acceptable, and it might become a serious problem for many people. However, it’s still far away from what happened in France just 30 km from here. People weren’t allowed to leave their homes even during daytime (except for work etc.). Having said this, there seems to be no evidence that lockdowns do any good in terms of disease control. Considering the massive negative impact on our lives it is simply not acceptable for authorities to say: “Well, we don’t know anything about the positive effects of lockdowns. But better safe than sorry.”
Governmens have made protocols on how to treat people with Covid19. The years before there were more people in the hospital (also with influenza) but it was accepted that old people/weak people could die of influenza, no special protocols… Maybe that is one of the reasons…
I agree with your premise, but not your conclusion that the panic stemmed from a Chinese psyop. I believe it was a global ruling class orchestrated psyop. My usual procedure when the cover story does not make sense (as the COVID story never did) is to look at the effects. The main effects have less to do with health than with political economy. The results have been extensive destruction of capital, mass unemployment,elimination of many small businesses with destruction of the petty bourgeois class, and overall the imposition of a medical police state world wide. Do not look at Ji; look at Klaus Schwab, Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, et al.
I think there is something far far bigger going on. Something which is so simple but also so unimaginable, that only a few people can even think about it.
Its the final fight between the Good and the Evil.
God (or however named) has send Satan to earth, so that we Humans experience the bad, the ugly, the other side. But God also gave Evil only a limited time here on earth, until mankind is again united in love, peace, happiness and respect. So there are lots of people, who have woken up recently. They feel the positive energy all around, they look more carefully at their health, they try to consume only the things they need and mostly they try to help each other. Why? To generally lift up this positive cosmic spirit. To stop this unavoidable, to stay as long as possible here, Evil and its willing helpers create more and more bad spirits to divide us humans, because they couldn’t stand a chance against a positive united mankind. So Covid and its evil vaccine (which by the way wasn’t developed just in a few months time) is now the latest of well planned events.
TBC …
So, what can we do?
Firstly, stay positive (whatever happens). No one can take our free will away.
Secondly, stay away from the vaccine.
And finally, dont let them divide us.
Because we are strong, we all have lots of positive energy in us, which we need to discover and then united we will defeat our evil opponent and then there will be only light, all around and also in us personally.
These are my thoughts …
Stephen McGrail: Is it possible to suppress a virus, or rather viral transmission? I do not think it possible, other than by using a biohazard suit. If you disagree, give evidence.
James, for the annual totals:
National Audit Office
157-197 Buckingham Palace Road
Victoria
London
SW1W 9SP
United Kingdom
27th November 2020
Dear Mr……………….
In answer to your request under the freedom of information act the attached files contain the recorded deaths by year for England and Wales.
Some years may be missing as they are under audit to ensure accuracy.
YEAR Designated Area Total
1998 Deaths registered in England and Wales 541,589
1999 Deaths registered in England and Wales 553,532
2000 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
2001 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
2002 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
2003 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
2004 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
2005 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
2006 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
2007 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
2008 Deaths registered in England and Wales N/A
2009 Deaths registered in England and Wales 491,348
2010 Deaths registered in England and Wales 493,342
2011 Deaths registered in England and Wales 484,367
2012 Deaths registered in England and Wales 499,331
2013 Deaths registered in England and Wales 506,790
2014 Deaths registered in England and Wales 501,424
2015 Deaths registered in England and Wales 529,655
2016 Deaths registered in England and Wales 525,048
2017 Deaths registered in England and Wales 533,253
2018 Deaths registered in England and Wales 541,589
2019 Deaths registered in England and Wales 530,841
2020 Deaths registered in England and Wales 485,564
upto and inclusive of week 45
For context, I live in Canada. Concern about COVID-19 started to ramp up here once we saw images from Italy of bodies piling up and severely restricted movement of the Italian people. Very few people cared about China, it was Italy that worried them (racist much?). Then Tom Hanks and Rita Wilson tested positive, and all hell broke loose.
Anyway, I have two theories. One is people don’t know what “pandemic” means. The definition from the WHO is “an epidemic occurring worldwide, or over a very wide area, crossing international boundaries and usually affecting a large number of people.” That’s it. The underlying assumption has been that a pandemic is defined by a particularly lethal disease, or that calling it a pandemic means that mortality is unusually high. But that’s not true at all. The website itself goes on to say that there is no condition of virology, severity or immunity of the population assumed in the definition. (https://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/89/7/11-088815/en/#:~:text=A%20pandemic%20is%20defined%20as,are%20not%20considered%20pandemics.)
My second theory is something I really should name. Something like the “opposite of Trump effect.” As the Canadian government closed borders (unless you’re flying, but that’s a whole other thing), and provinces and territories initiated lockdowns, a very common refrain around here was “I’m so glad our leaders are making the RIGHT decisions. Thank GOD we don’t live in the States.” I think leaders here looked at Trump’s reaction to the pandemic (and those of Boris Johnson and Jair Bolsonaro) and went “well that’s obviously wrong.” And so they made moves in the complete opposite direction, and never questioning whether or not there could be more than one wrong option. We were among the last to acknowledge that the virus was in our communities in North America, and so our leaders had the luxury of just doing what other jurisdictions were doing without much question from the public.
Because the Government has dramatically reduced the number of inpatient ward beds (not ICU or HDU) .
COVID patients on the wards should be transferred to the Nightingale hospitals but these hospitals have been dismantled.
Ulf Martin said:
“Against the latter: In Jan/Feb China could probably not foresee that the world would enter deep panic. In the end there were public health services everywhere and one could have assumed they’d act rationally”
Yes, but public health services – and indeed most other publis servicec – are managed by Power Point presentations, Spread Sheets, Micro Management, what model of BMW is available for senior management etrc. etc. NOT the best interests of their portfolio.
This is the fun part when figuring out what’s going on. The authorities do not give us helpful data. They should provide mortality rates per specific number of the population (e.g. per 1000). Absolute numbers of deaths are not very useful. Furthermore, the total number does not allow for serious statistical analysis, since we can’t calculate the standard deviation. Deaths per week seem to be a pretty good basis for statistical tests. They could simply upload an Excel datasheet providing daily deaths for the last 30 years on their website. Is this asked to much? Datasets for 9 of 23 years are not available to ensure accuracy? Is counting deaths rocket science in the UK? Do they really need up to 20 years to provide valid data? It wouldn’t take more than a couple of hours to run the tests and create a simple graph for everybody to download.
@ Ray Whitcombe “Yes, but public health services – and indeed most other public services – are managed by Power Point presentations, Spread Sheets, Micro Management, what model of BMW is available for senior management etrc. etc. NOT the best interests of their portfolio.” OK, but still China could not rely on all that sending countries into lockdown. At least for AT, CH, DE, and DK it is reported that bodies or persons responsible for the assessment of public dangers were bypassed by politicians (and it seems that this takes place in SE too, now…). Not something CN could anticipate, IMO.
AT : https://www.falter.at/zeitung/20200512/was-passiert-wenn-es-eng-wird
CH : https://www.insidecorona.ch/2020/05/21/coronakrise-professionelles-krisenmanagement-sieht-anders-aus/
DE : https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/05/29/german-official-leaks-report-denouncing-corona-as-global-false-alarm/
DK : https://www.thelocal.dk/20200529/leaked-emails-show-how-denmarks-pm-steam-rollered-her-own-health-agency
Salkin, you could have said that about any of the major conflicts in the past century. Nothing much happeed in the way of long term people looking out for each other.
You cannot just say “hospitals are overrun” without context. First, most aren’t and to the extent they are, it is largely due to their own staffing decisions. ICU’s are run at 85-90% capacity always for biz reasons. Compare to prior flu seasons and you will see that it happens every year but they made it worse this year thru delaying procedures and laying off staff, and then isolating what staff they have when exposed. 2nd, “deaths” are an abstraction due to never-before used rules for flagging deaths as C19. Take a look at overall fatality age distribution. It is nearly identical to normal all cause mortality age distribution, with the only diff being it is less dangerous for <60 yr old than all other combined forms of mortality. Is there excess mortality? Yes. There is in bad flu seasons too. And a final distinction is that we got two seasons in one in 2020. The virus arrived late – in early 2020 rather than starting in Fall 2019 as a typical endemic resp virus – so season one happened in Spring. Season 2 (Now) is happening during the expected annual resp virus season. So stats for 2020 are elevated. You can argue that 1/2 of the first wave in northern regions should be attributed to 2019 season.
“in a country like the UK, we have a … declining health care spending in recent years.”
Poppycock. Since the NHS was founded expenditure on it has increased in real terms every year, under every government, except the Labour government of the late 1970s.
Nailed it. This like the Wizard of Oz saying pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
So? Would you say that expenditure equals quality? Please, check the numbers. Today, much more is paid for highly questionable “therapies”. Costs explode but life expectancy does not increase significantly. Actually, in the US we have seen a decrease. My aunt died of lung cancer a year ago. She got an immunetherapy at the very end. I checked the studies. Well, a signficant increase of life expectancy was reported… from 3 to 6 months. Costs were around 50.000 to 100.000 Euros. However, our NHS would not pay 300 Euros for a proper walking aid, let alone psychological support. Besides, my aunt died 7 months after starting the immunetherapy. So, they didn’t lie!
You say “China…has a long history of strict control of its media messaging, and a well developed propaganda machine”, which is sort of true but I bet bet they’d give their right arm to have the sort of control the US and UK has. Do any Chinese, when they are alone with their spouse under the bed-covers, really believe what they are told? The average Chinese is pretty smart.
Compare this with the mindless, unquestioning acceptance that so many have here of anything they hear on CNN or the BBC or Twitter; the blanket censorship of wrong-think; the self-censorship of Social Media; the “fact-checking”(!!!) by by self-appointed know-alls with worthless qualifications in non-subjects; the legal system that rolls over and ignores fundamental human rights whenever it suits them; and a sizeable minority of the public eager to attack anyone daring to think for themselves.
True, we have a minority of people who take the effort to try to understand, but they are easily ignored, insulted or threatened.
“Soft” censorship and propaganda should not be underestimated.
I don’t think it’s an alternative, but I would say complementary
Absolutey!. Any country valuing its sovereignty would control US organs of propaganda–e.g. the (anti) social media, Google feeds, Facebook feeds, etc.
Sebastian, gdzie masz dowody? Nie jest niemożliwe stłumić wirusa za pomocą blokady, jeśli jest wystarczająco dobra. Zobacz efekty w modelu SIR 7 minut na https://youtu.be/gxAaO2rsdIs .
Doniesienia, które słyszałem od ludzi na miejscu, mówią, że wszyscy są poddawani kwarantannie, która była w sąsiedztwie kogoś z SARS-CoV-2. Myślę, że prostą odpowiedzią jest to, że można to zrobić w państwie z pełną kontrolą, ale nie w naszych demokracjach.
Ponadto wierzę w statystyki dotyczące pacjentów w szpitalach z naszych szwedzkich regionów. Z tego powodu myślę, że porównanie z kominem jest niedoszacowaniem. Efekty w fazie zapalnej są dla niektórych osób dość poważne. Oba te rozwiązania razem sprawiają, że większość zaleceń, które obecnie mamy w Szwecji, jest rozsądnych, aby utrzymać jak najniższy spread.
Nie znam żadnego stanu, który miałby pełną kontrolę, chociaż Stany Zjednoczone są blisko, może także Wielka Brytania. Nie ma dowodów na to, że blokady mogą kontrolować cokolwiek innego niż sprzeciw polityczny. Aktualne dane (od września) sugerują, że blokady nie mają żadnego wpływu lub mają negatywny wpływ na kontrolę epidemii wirusów.
Great post, thanks for writing. What is your response to people who point out New Zealand as an example where lockdowns have worked?
1-The excess death in Sweden (2016-2020) reported of 30th of November does not take in account the population growth. If you make the population adjustment it comes down to a P-Value of 2,74 witch is not very significant. (avg.85631 vs 87981)
// 2-The increase mortality in US is probably due to the same reasons as in Portugal, were we had more excess non-covid deaths than covid. If one introduces a severe lock-down this creates huge health and economic problems that will translate in many unnecessary deaths (undiagnosed cancer, unfollowed cardiac disease, suicide) etc. Besides that US have a very controversial incentive trough medicare to pay each hospital 13k for a covid patient and 40k if it goes in a ventilator witch may inflate covid numbers. // 3-By the way, the same swedish study says that for people under 70 IFR is 0,09%, I think this is a relevant detail. But anyway one may consider more robust the study from Ioannidis witch is a meta-analysis and points out to IFR 0,23% global, and 0,05%<70yo, https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf.//4-Well, the "Long-Covid" study has yet to be peer-reviewd but anyway it points out that it excludes people who didn't report any symptoms, witch makes the relative weight of those who report persistent symptoms to be lower.
This is bio terrorism by china
They are in a serious phase of moving toward global dominance. These CCP Rulers want to control the 1.5B chinese people, the U.N. and the USA. This is the starting point.
They have politicians (think hunter biden) compromised and blackmailed with crimes on hard drives.
Bombshells potentially coming. This all needs to get exposed.
I think you’re close.
In democratic societies in particular, the elected need to be seen to be ‘doing something’. To do nothing in this case would have them labeled as “murderers”. Put these together with your average politician thinking they are the Saviour of their People, and you get politicians only too happy to oblige fanning hysteria.
@ Ulf Martin — you can bet China isn’t using PCR tests at a very high level of amplification, so they probably catch only the real active cases. Which is the smart way of testing.
The PCR test can detect fragments of a destroyed virus so you can test positive for traces of a *past* infection if the level of amplification is too high. But our stupid public health bureaucrats will declare you an “active case” even if you no longer have the virus active in you.
If the Cycle threshold of the PCR test is too high you end up with absurd situations like this: this young asymptomatic woman who was never contagious (her bf tested negative) had 8 positive tests in 4 months:
https://archive.vn/CUqev
I think you have part of the story correct. China indeed faked the Covid thing (remember the shots of people falling dead in the streets – remember the patients being wheeled into hospitals in what looked like hyperbaric chambers)
But the people who run the world are in on this.
Your theory breaks down because in many countries governments are not elected. They have no problem with changing course because they are dictators. Look at Hong Kong where the Carrie Lam Junta sends triads to beat up women in the subway after a protest. Do you think she is worried about public opinion? She could stop the restrictions in a minute – but she doesn’t.
What is happening IMO is that we have hit peak oil — and we are shutting down the global economy to conserve what remains.
According to Rystad, the current resource replacement ratio for conventional resources is only 16 percent. In other words, only one barrel out of every six consumed is being replaced with new resources.
So not only has our pace of discovery declined, but discoveries are also in much more challenging geological venues and typically offshore, which means it could take many years just to bring new resources online.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Biggest-Oil-Gas-Discoveries-Of-2019.html
SHALE BOSS SAYS US HAS PASSED PEAK OIL | FINANCIAL TIMESwww.ft.com › content
Jul 12, 2020 – Shale boss says US has passed peak oil. Parsley Energy CEO: ‘I don’t think I’ll see 13m barrels a day again in my lifetime’.
The overall burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths (Table: Estimated Influenza Disease Burden, by Season — United States, 2010-11 through 2017-18 Influenza Seasons).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
Keep in mind if you get killed in a motorcycle accident and you had covid… you died of covid … so the current deaths are nowhere near 2017/18
@Pedro M: Would you share the data with us? What do you mean by a p value of 2.74? This is, of course, not significant at all. Or do you mean 0.0274?
Steve, zobacz wykres punktowy na początku tego https://youtu.be/p_vAQyVlXzU autorstwa Ivor Cummins. Jest to w ciągu pierwszych 10 minut. Bez względu na to, co się stawia w szczególności, nie ma korelacji.
Steve, to pokazuje wykres punktowy sytuacji w ciągu pierwszych 10 minut. https://youtu.be/p_vAQyVlXzU Pochodzi z Ivor Cummins. Niezależnie od kraju, który wybierzesz, nie ma korelacji.
Grant, I think hunter biden was more likely willingly complicit than blackmailed, and that applies to all the other pro-lockdown actors.
I do very much hope that your explanation is correct.
But what really scares me is that all “serious” media (I can tell only for Germany) follow the panic narrative.
We used to have left-wing newspapers (“Neues Deutschland”, “TAZ”) which used to dig into EVERY bit of shit they suspected the government could be responsible for. Even these are only telling nonsense.
So I’m frightened there could be more behind
@Mark
Lack of a triage is a simple explanation for hospitals being overrun. Six years ago my father died from common flu and subsequent pneumonia. He was 87 years old. He was suffering from dementia and was very weak. He was admitted to the hospital and they let him die. No invasive ventilation was used to “save” his life. Why not? Because under the normal circumstances they don’t do that on patients who won’t survive it anyway. When he died the doctors told us that he was too old and weak, and that it didn’t make sense to try to “save” his life. They told us “That’s life”, and we accepted it. So, what’s the difference today? They are using invasive ventilation on all Covid patients no matter how sick they are. Even on people with terminal cancer who are positive on koronavirus. My question is: How on earth can hospitals not being overrun? When you are putting such patients on invasive ventilation and doing everything to keep them alive, then you are occupying ICU beds and using extra human resources. At one point, you simply run short of ICU beds and medical personel. Also, don’t forget the fact that when we have really bad flu seasons hospitals are being overrun as well.
As for the Covid deaths, there were many extra deaths in March and April in some countries, but now we don’t have extra mortality although the numbers of positive to coronavirus are higher than in spring 2020. When you look at the overall mortality per year, this year is not any different from previous years.
@ Nic “you can bet China isn’t using PCR tests at a very high level of amplification, so they probably catch only the real active cases. Which is the smart way of testing.”
Indeed I agree. I have a little remark in my text on the mass PCR testing in Wuhan 2nd half of May. 10M tests in 2 weeks. 300 positive, 110 false positive. Initially you would think its a fake. But then you look at the test protocol: two positive “targets” required (not just one) and Ct < 40 for a target to be positive. If your test has an false positive rate e.g. 0.3% (good but possible) then with 2 tests you have FPR 90/10M which fits to the data.
The catch is to limit testing to Wuhan. Then you can declare "Wuhan is now safe, and Wuhan people are safe". My idea is that the science done in China is all correct, perhaps even better than what is going on in the West. But it is framed to fit the containment narrative.
https://weltexperiment.com/20814.html#the-dao-of-heaven-as-if-it-is-the-case
@ Alf Håkanssonsays “Sebastian, where are your evidence? It’s not impossible to suppress the virus with a lock down if it is good enough.”
As far as lockdowns go I think the evidence is now: it may slow the spread but cannot stop it (several blog posts by Sebastian). You can try to keep it out like NZ tries, but you have to close the border indefinitely.
As to Wuhan: the epidemiology is against any possibility of stopping the spread: Ioannidis has a high IFR of 0.4%, there were 4000 deaths. Therefore there must have been 1M infected around Feb 01. If you calculate back the number of infected with R = 4/week you get 250K @ Jan 23 (lockdown day), 60K @ Jan 16 (first case reports by CN), 15K @ Jan 10 (official start of Chunyun = New Year travel season). With 1 billion Chunyun journeys in all of CN until Jan 23 there is no way to do anything against the spread.
Ulf, China must be doubled over with laughter when they see the current antics in the UK.
@ AhNotepad “Ulf, China must be doubled over with laughter when they see the current antics in the UK.” Indeed. I think that Western politicians who, like EU, have declared CN to be a “systemic rival”, do not realizes what monkeys they make of themselves by instead destrying their own economies. In an earlier version of my text I have this:
“Some Western countries have declared conflict with China in various fields. Now they have damaged their own societies by lockdowns. This is like an army that wants to wage war but then sees ghosts, gets crazy, and damages its own weapons in a state of fear because it had the impression that the declared enemy did the same thing. — How will a Chinese politician or business person approach a lockdown politician in the future?”
@AhNotepad The earlier title of my text was “Corona Circus Wuhan” (changing back to it). There was this passage:
“If the story here is true, the creators of the Corona Circus Wuhan must have had the entertainment of their lifetime. People of the world doing mask distance dancing to the cadence of the absolute test case count. The nations of the world are performing a “World Circus Corona” for China.”
Gary Ogden, you wrote: “Is it possible to suppress a virus, or rather viral transmission? I do not think it possible, other than by using a biohazard suit. If you disagree, give evidence”.
Well, I live in Australia and the experience here (similar to NZ) suggests it’s possible but not easy. And you risk only delaying transmission if the virus later gets brought back in the country undetected and/or if some cases in the community are missed, both of which are real possibilities. (We currently have small outbreaks related to the virus being brought back in to the country via international travel despite measures that seek to prevent this). We had a draconian lockdown in Melbourne for four months, closed borders throughout the pandemic (and 14 day mandatory quarantine for all travelers on arrival), etc, to attempt what the government calls “aggressive suppression”. It appears to have worked. But it’s massively difficult and costly, and the results may be temporary. It requires constant vigilance as well. Whenever there’s a handful of COVID-19 cases in one state of Australia the political leaders in the other states ban travel from that state to their own, there’s massive efforts at contract tracing, etc etc.
Sorry, Gary, I meant to write: massive efforts at contact tracing (not contract tracing)! (see above)
@Ulf Martin
“As far as lockdowns go I think the evidence is now: it may slow the spread but cannot stop it (several blog posts by Sebastian).”
Which is not true. Name one European country who has had a real lockdown. I don’t think you can. The trouble is that our politicians are selling us false lockdowns as something that should be effective against pandemics, and you, like many other people, believe in their propaganda. You have to define lockdown if you want to discuss it, otherwise you don’t know what you are talking about.
You can try to keep it out like NZ tries, but you have to close the border indefinitely.”
Which is not true. Imagine Australia acchieve the same zero community transmission as New Zealand. If that happen they can open their borders to each other, and so on. Actually, they have such an agreement in place. Also, New Zealand can soon vaccinate the old and vulnerable and already in May open their borders.
Mkjj123 sure, pleased to share my data. By the way I have collected the raw data from SCB-official Sweden statistics:
Population Sweden 2016-2020 ( 9793172 9906331 10053061 10171524 10281189 10352390)
Deaths up to 30 Nov ( 83085 82706 83903 84374 81061 87981)
Deaths adjusted by population 2020 ( 87829 86430 86401 85874 81622 87981)
Average adjusted deaths 2016-2019 vs 2020 ( 85631 87981)
Now to calculate the p-value you do: 100*[deaths 2020 – average deaths (2016-2019)] / average deaths (2016-2019)
this comes to 2,74 witch is not significant in my view. Imagine a country where usually 100k pepole die, this would mean 102,7k deaths. If you use data until 20 Dez and extrapolate to the rest of the year you’ll have a P-value of 3,29, still not much significant.
Corona Circus Wuhan. Others who saw this rather early. (For people who read German).
1) Helmut Jäger, medical doctor, motion trainer, coach, runs the highly recommendable site “Medizinisches Coaching”. He told me that already back in February, when he was in Laos, he wondered about the “over the top” Wuhan action. He published his thoughts in June.
https://www.medizinisches-coaching.net/psychologie/sprachen_der_psyche/wahrheit/gesundheits-religion.html
Pedro M: You can’t run tests for statistical significance with such a small dataset, and your formula does not calculate the proper p-value. The best dataset would contain daily deaths converted to mortality rates for the last 20 to 30 years. Now you have to run a double-sided t-test between ALL years. This would give you a pretty good overview. This is something the authorities should do, but they don’t.
Corona Circus Wuhan. Others who saw this rather early. (For people who read German).
2) Peter Mayer, science and politics blogger. His posts I am aware of:
June: https://tkp.at/2020/06/22/corona-raetsel-pandemie-medienereignis-ausgeloest-durch-regierung-chinas/
Aug.: https://tkp.at/2020/08/27/das-corona-raetsel-von-china-oder-das-oktoberfest-in-qingdao-und-der-lockdown-trick/
Oct.: https://tkp.at/2020/10/31/china-profitiert-massiv-von-seinem-kurzem-corona-lockdown-spiel/
Dec.: https://tkp.at/2020/12/22/pandemie-gewinner-china/
I already had this idea in May when Wodarg wrote that CN has stopped testing. The data reported by CN was always very odd. My site went online only in November, though.
Most people who question the measures every now and then usually come to the conclusion: the whole world cannot overreact to such an extent and implement measures that exceed appropriate reactions by a factor of 1,000.
These people are reminded of the overreactions to 9/11 that continue to this day, of the global war on terror with millions of deaths, breeding of terrorists, billions of dollars spent on armaments (instead of e.g. for health systems) global surveillance of all people, Drone murders …
The attacks of 9/11 were terrible, a reaction was appropriate, but what we have been experiencing since then (and what we now call “normality”) is a world order (you could call it “new”) that has no relation to the trigger (9 / 11)
(translated by “Google Übersetzer”)
Mkjj123 you are right! I mistook p-value for p-score. So what I meant was P-Score, as one can find it here: “https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid”.
The SCB has daily deaths by the way: “https://www.scb.se/en/finding-statistics/statistics-by-subject-area/population/population-composition/population-statistics/pong/tables-and-graphs/preliminary-statistics-on-deaths/” but the last days are clearly under counted, so for the time being one can only rely on data until 20 Dez I guess.
In any circumstance it seems to be difficult to find an underlying distribution for the number of deaths by year, as the death rate changes continuously over time as the health care develops, don’t you think? And there’s also no independence between variables? Maybe you can give me your opinion on this. How can one define a confidence interval for the number of deaths this year? How can we set a limit to what is considered a normal death rate for this year? Thanks
@ Tim Karsten: “Most people who question the measures every now and then usually come to the conclusion: the whole world cannot overreact to such an extent and implement measures that exceed appropriate reactions by a factor of 1,000.”
I have indeed heard that argument quite a few times. My argument about how this was possible rests on these main premises:
a) Mass hysteria is a quite ordinary phenomenon in human history (war enthusiasm, religious awakenings, genocides, etc.)
b) Social and mass media are enormous panic amplifiers and brainwashing machines.
c) The internet has interconnected the world to an unprecedented degree.
Full reasoning here: “The First Modern Panhysteria”
https://weltexperiment.com/20816.html
I think it’s even simpler than that; what we are seeing is a return to the normal flu and cold season of this time of year, but they are calling it Covid-19. Covid-19, if it ever existed as a separate disease (which I doubt, since SARS-COV-2 virus has never been purified and isolated), died out or became less virulent during the summer of 2020, as life started to get back to something like normality. People got outside, more sunshine, more exercise, probably ate more fresh food, got together, had fun; society slowly began to rebuild after being destroyed by lockdown 1.0.
However, by now they had the spurious Drosten version of the PCR test to “identify” infection by the SARS-COV-2 virus (which it doesn’t), so they managed to spin out the Covid-19 story until the onset of the normal seasonal cold and flu season, which, as has been commented on already, has been exacerbated by the earlier onset of winter weather.
And here we are (in the UK) with lockdown 3.0 which will make things worse not better.
Thanks for the link. That is a pretty good datasheet. Too bad, that the time range is so small. I’m sure the can provide more data from the past. While daily numbers are excellent, it’s probably ok to use weekly deaths. I would convert them to a mortality rate on the basis of the population for this year. This is not 100% exact, but should be good enough. Having done that, you can simply run t-tests (included in all calcluation programs like Excel) and check the p-value. It’s important to compare as many years as possible. So, it’s not enough to compare 2020 to 2019, 2018 etc, but 2018 to 2019, 2017 to 2018 etc. This would be very time-consuming. So, it’s probably good enough do draw a chart and compare only those years that seem to be at extreme levels. Let’s assume we had check the years 2000 to 2010 and find the highest mortality rate in 2001 and the lowest in 2005. I would then run the test only for these years. This will give a broad idea, if 2020 showed a significantly high mortality or not. Unfortunately, this takes time. The worst part is finding the data.
Agree 100%
Stephen,
“Well, I live in Australia and the experience here (similar to NZ) suggests it’s possible but not easy. And you risk only delaying transmission if the virus later gets brought back in the country undetected and/or if some cases in the community are missed, both of which are real possibilities. ”
Look at Ivor Cummins’s scatter plot of restrictions vs outcomes, and you see it’s just luck, no correlation whatever.
Zeljko, “Which is not true. Name one European country who has had a real lockdown. I don’t think you can. The trouble is that our politicians are selling us false lockdowns as something that should be effective against pandemics, and you, like many other people, believe in their propaganda. You have to define lockdown if you want to discuss it, otherwise you don’t know what you are talking about.”
virus gonna virus. Read edgar Hope Simpson’s Transmission Of Influenza Virus.
Stephan McGrail: Thank you for your reply. It is good to know that Australia has been largely spared. What I want to see is scientific evidence that viral transmission can be suppressed short of complete isolation of populations from each other. I have not yet seen any.
The hospitals are empy, I was admited last November, and walked the empty halls and rooms as I recovered. Read the wording of the news articles carfully, you will begin to notice all the things they aren’t saying. to make their partially truthful claims seam so dire. eg ICU at 90% capacity. Is meaningless, and normal ICU procedure, because the ICU justs adapt more rooms and beds as patients need ICU care. Thus all the empty rooms, just in case. I have spent over 2 weeks in an ICU ward, as well and watched this happen the whole time.
Gary that is crazy….short of destroying the world for viral transmission for a not very dangerous virus? You need evidence for this
Why Do People Die of COVID? There are several answers to this question, but none or very few of them are from the COVID virus alone. The vast majority of people who die of COVID were almost ready to die from other causes like heart disease, cancer, or diabetes. Most people who die from COVID are vitamin D deficient because it has been shown that if serum D levels are high enough, patients don’t die. Most patients who die of COVID are not treated correctly, for when does anyone in hospitals get treated correctly? In the case of COVID, successful treatments have been actively suppressed in the press and hospitals. ICU doctors are notorious for being stubborn, preferring patients to die than use, for example, intravenous vitamin C or, in the case of sepsis, new revolutionary treatments that save lives. https://drsircus.com/general/saving-sepsis-patients-lives/
https://drsircus.com/general/saving-sepsis-patients-lives/
The “free tip” from Alfio Puglisi shows that he thinks that he only knows what is adequate, correct. I’m fed up of this type of person
Thanks,
oliveira (oliveria by error)
Thank you for uploading
I see it as an act of war. The terrifying death videos with no time stamps, the fear videos all appear to be propaganda (one of these videos was actually from a Chinese movie). Remember that nothing gets through the great firewall if China, but people were able to leak these.
China was on the verge of a complete economic collapse due to sanctions and world opinion of them. Now the boogyman is out to get you, shut down your economy. Now every country is going bankrupt and China has had their largest financial boom ever. Their growth in the past 9 months is amazing and now everyone is trying to get in bed with them.
They approved a test, but never provided samples of the virus. It is a poor test to begin with, but once you increase the cycle threshold then you cases rise quickly, but you don’t even know what you are looking for. This is why they keep finding different variations from the same test. If most people test positive then everyone had covid.
This is a war that China won without firing a single bullet and the worlds leaders are too arrogant to admit it or too stupid to see it. The most overpopulated, polluted country with the poorest health and healthcare beat a major pandemic in month with communism. Now world leaders cry “if only we did what China did”. Theatre at it’s worst.
Vielen Dank für diese Sichtweise. Diese Theorie ging mir auch schon durch den Kopf. Ich bin auch in einer Diktatur großgeworden und dadurch generell vorsichtig mit Allem, den öffentlichen Medien, der Medizin und mach anderer Sichtweisen. Das plötzlich die sogenannte Demokratie und die größten Kritiker der chinesischen Diktatur die Nachamer solcher fragwürdigen Methoden sind, verwundert mich seid geraumer Zeit. Plötzlich ist Gewalt und Druck das einzige Mittel.
Ich denke fast, dass die Maßnahmen , Krankheiten verschärfen . Angst macht krank.
You’re right about that! The virus was created in the lab in Wuhan (with connections to Gates and Fauci) and was accidently released in that area. I think the real plan was to release it in the US, crash the ceonomy and get rid of Trump. And usher in the New World Order aka The Great Reset! I pray that Trump can stay another four years, or we are f-ed…
Interesting article of the possibility of virus and other organic material being transported on trade winds within dust particles. They have always tried to model influenza outbreaks every year and each time odd outbreaks occur where nobody could predict. I’m sure close contact transmission does occur but is not the only mechanism required of the virus.When sage say the ONLY way covid 19 is transmitted is by close contact with another person again is again an over simplification of a complex issue
.
https://www.hilarispublisher.com/open-access/intercontinental-spread-of-covid19-on-global-wind-systems-45198.html
Well the truth is on the CDC website, they rolled all flu, pneumonia and so called covid into one thing, flu was effectively killed off.
Widzę ten wykres (poniżej) i zastanawiam się. Taki wykres, dla prawie każdego dużego kraju, potwierdziłby mi, czy te bezprecedensowe światowe blokady i przepisy nadzwyczajne były konieczne, czy nie. Czy zostaliśmy oszukani?
https://i.postimg.cc/TYsTjzxx/Sweden-1850-to-2020.png
Sebastiana,
„Pisałem o tym, że śmiertelność spada poniżej 0,2%”,
W Szwecji zginęło teraz 9000. Zgodność z liczbą 0,2% oznacza, że ma ją co najmniej 45% populacji.
naprawdę w to wierzysz?
In USA already more than 0.1% have died. To be consistent with the 0.2% number that mans half already have had it. Do you believe that?
“And I’ve noted that 2020 will likely turn out to have been a very average year in terms of overall mortality, in spite of the supposedly deadly pandemic that is currently raging.”
Seems like you will hit about 95.2 thousand deaths in 2020, average previous 10 years 90.7.
Not “very average”, (not +9000 either).
Hi Thorbjorn,
The <0,2% figure is from Ioannidis, and is the global IFR. It is quite likely that the US will have a higher IFR due to its heavily obese population. When it comes to Sweden, I’m not sure about 45%, although it’s possible. I think more than 30% of Sweden’s population have had covid by now, which is what the antibody data is suggesting. The most vulnerable will tend to die early in a pandemic, so the initial IFR will be higher than the overall IFR. Therefore you can’t just draw a straight line.
As for the death rate, we don’t have full year data yet, but as of early December, 2020 was shaping up to be a pretty average year. Deaths should be calculated as a proportion of the population, not as an absolute number. And as Kora mentioned, 2020 should be a deadlier year than average even without covid, because 2019 had such an unusually low mortality.
SCB powinien opublikować dane dotyczące śmiertelności za cały rok w ciągu najbliższych kilku dni. Ciekawie będzie zobaczyć, co to pokazuje.
Jest to bardzo interesujące narzędzie do porównania z poprzednimi latami, zrównoważone pod kątem zmieniającej się ogólnej liczby ludności: https://mpidr.shinyapps.io/stmortality/ Szwecja miała oczywiście lata nieśmiertelności, zwłaszcza w 2019 r., Co czyni ją podatną na „ efekt zbiorów ”w 2020 r.